Glimmers of hope that New Hampshire is ‘bending the curve’

CONCORD — Early signs indicate efforts in New Hampshire to mitigate the spread of coronavirus appear to be “bending the curve,” or reducing the spread of the disease, state epidemiologist Dr. Benjamin Chan said in a news conference Thursday.

But he was quick to add now is not the time to let up on those efforts.

“It’s important to continue to work together to protect everyone in the state especially those vulnerable to infection, and to continue with social distance,” he said.

There have been 819 people with COVID-19 in New Hampshire, up 31 from Wednesday, he said. A total of 127 needed hospitalization, up nine, and 21 have died, up three.

Without mitigation efforts, such as closing non-essential businesses, requiring remote learning and banning large gatherings, the state could have seen tens of thousands of cases and hundreds of deaths, Chan said.

“We can substantially reduce the number of infections and deaths,” he said. “The goal of our efforts is to save lives.

“If we are successful in controlling the outbreak, there will come a time when we need to talk about relaxing social distancing, but that is not now.”

Such a premature relaxation could lead to fresh outbreaks, he said.

He referenced the Institute for Health Metrics at the University of Washington School of Medicine, which makes COVID-19 projections and demands for medical resources by state.

Assuming full social distancing through May, New Hampshire would not have a shortage of hospital beds or intensive care unit beds, according to the projection, which also showed the state is about a week away from peaks in medical resource use and daily deaths.

It projects 66 COVID-19-related deaths in the state by Aug. 4.

“Now is the time to stay at home and protect others,” Chan said. “Hopefully we’ll see the backside of the curve in the coming few weeks.”

Gov. Chris Sununu praised people for doing their part to limit the spread of coronavirus.

“These mitigation efforts add up in an incredible way with real results,” he said. “We cannot thank citizens enough, but we have a long way to go.”