COVID-19 tracker is as good as it has been all summer

Two events last week reflect why New Hampshire remains nervous about COVID-19 even though we are one of the best states in handling the pandemic.

One was the suggestion that anybody who attended the Sturgis motorcycle rally in South Dakota last month should get tested, when six cases of COVID-19 in the state were tied to that gathering. This warning came during the toned-down but still vibrant Laconia Motorcycle Week, raising the uncomfortable possibility of a Granite State parallel.

The other event was an email scolding from a UNH provost, mindful of outbreaks at other major universities, following news of a 50-student off-campus party in Durham. If this keeps up, the email warned, UNH could switch to online-only classes.

Both of those reflect the knowledge that the COVID tide can turn at any time, and it doesn’t take too many bad decisions to change things. Just because New Hampshire has performed well so far doesn’t protect us down the road.

And we have performed well, judging from the four metrics that the Monitor has been following all summer.

There was some worry earlier this month when new-case numbers started to edge up that the partial opening of businesses, bars and beaches was spreading the disease but that doesn’t seem to be the case. All our metrics are moving in the right direction.

Here’s the latest tally of those measurements:

Goal 1: A two-week drop in cases as measured by the 14-day running average, which would indicate that the virus is not spreading.

Have we met this goal? Yes

As of this writing the two-week average is hovering around 20 new cases a day, the level it was at in late March.

Goal 2: Fewer than four new cases per 100,000 people each day, or 54 new cases a day, which would show that the disease is below dangerous levels.

Have we met this goal? Yes, easily. New Hampshire’s new caseload has been below this level for more than two months.

More from this section

Best colleges in New Hampshire

Goal 3: Conducting at least 150 PCR tests, which spot current COVID-19 cases per 100,000 people each day. New Hampshire has 1.35 million people, so that works out to 2,000 tests per day.

Have we met this goal? Yes.

The average number of test results were reported each day was over 3,000 last week and has topped 4,000 on some days.

However, on average the number of different people being tested is only about two-thirds of the number of tests, because multiple tests are given to individuals in high-risk areas. So the number of people being tested is probably only about 2,000 a day, which barely meets the goal.

Goal 4: A positive rate of PCR tests below 5%, indicating that the virus is not spreading rapidly in the general population.

Have we met this goal? Yes.

As measured by the Department of Health and Human Services, the positive rate has been around 3% for more than two months.

I update three charts about the virus in New Hampshire each weekday: New cases, new hospitalizations, and total deaths.

(David Brooks can be reached at 369-3313 or dbrooks@cmonitor.com or on Twitter @GraniteGeek.)

•••

These articles are being shared by partners in The Granite State News Collaborative. For more information visit collaborativenh.org.