Jessica Williams: NH’s population is growing unevenly across its cities and towns, here's where and why

New data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows New Hampshire’s population grew by more than 30,000 people between 2020 and 2024, but behind that headline is a more complicated story. While many scenic, amenity-rich towns are seeing a population boom, several of the state’s job centers and larger communities are holding steady or shrinking.

Between 2020 and 2024, towns across the Lakes Region and White Mountains experienced some of the fastest growth rates in the state. Places such as Brookfield, Tuftonboro and Moultonborough grew at more than twice the statewide average of 2.2%. Carroll County, home to many of these towns, led all of New Hampshire’s 10 counties in growth. Several other White Mountains and Lake Sunapee communities, including Franconia, Sugar Hill and Newbury, also saw similar population boosts.

What’s behind this population growth? Remote work, retirement and second-home ownership all appear to be driving people toward scenic corners of the state. With more flexible work arrangements during and post-pandemic, national trends suggest people with the means to move are increasingly choosing rural towns with natural attractions, recreational access and quieter lifestyles. For some, that means converting a second home into a primary residence. For others, it’s the appeal of retiring to a lakefront view or mountain trail.

At the same time, some of New Hampshire’s larger communities, including places central to regional economic engines, are losing population. Berlin, Durham, Goffstown and Plymouth all saw slight declines. Derry, one of the state’s five most populous communities, lost a small number of residents as well. While Manchester and Nashua managed modest growth, their gains remain small compared to pre-pandemic years.

However, some larger communities are growing rapidly. Merrimack added over 2,500 residents, which was over 9% growth. Lebanon, Salem and Rochester all posted strong gains, as did southeastern towns such as Epping and Brentwood.

These patterns could raise concerns for anyone thinking about the future of New Hampshire’s economy. Our state has long relied on in-migration to power economic growth. Since 2017, deaths have outpaced births in the state, making population gains from new residents essential to sustaining the workforce. However, the places seeing the most growth aren’t necessarily the areas with the most jobs.

When job centers lose population, it can affect school enrollment, public transit ridership, the availability of workers for key industries, and other key aspects of economic life in communities. Employers in shrinking communities may struggle to find talent and, as younger workers and families are priced out or pushed away by limited child care options and high housing costs, the long-term picture grows more precarious.

But these patterns are not just about where people want to live. They are also impacted by where they can afford to live. High costs in the southeastern counties and cities like Manchester, Nashua, and Concord are pushing more people farther afield. Despite growth in the Lakes Region and White Mountains, these areas may not have the infrastructure, jobs or services to support a younger, working-age population, particularly families with children.

In particular, housing affordability and availability may be driving people to communities making those investments. State data show that the nine communities that permitted more than 100 housing units during 2023 were nine of the top 10 communities that added the largest number of residents from 2020 to 2024, and three of the top four with the fastest percentage growth rates.

The big picture? New Hampshire is growing, but unevenly. Nearly three-quarters of the state’s population lives in the four southeastern counties: Hillsborough, Merrimack, Rockingham and Strafford. That concentration won’t change overnight, but the trends of growth in remote, rural areas, paired with slower growth or declining populations in some economic hubs, provide insight into challenges facing Granite Staters.

In order for New Hampshire to continue to be a place where businesses can hire, families can thrive, and communities can flourish, tackling the barriers pushing people away from job centers may be crucial. That includes addressing the housing crisis, improving access to child care, and planning for the infrastructure we need, both where the growth is happening and where it’s not.

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Jessica Williams is a policy analyst at the New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute, a nonpartisan, independent research nonprofit that examines issues related to the state budget, the economy, health care, housing and more.