On primary day, will New Hampshire Democrats and Republicans stick to playbooks?

In 2006, Carol Shea-Porter stunned the New Hampshire Democratic establishment, defeating a well-funded, party-backed opponent, Jim Craig, in the primary and then ousting Republican Jeb Bradley in the 1st Congressional District. And she did it with a progressive platform. 

“There was a sense of: We don’t want Washington coming here and telling us what to do,” recalled Kathy Sullivan, the New Hampshire Democratic Party chairwoman at the time. 

Twenty years later, some progressive Democrats are hoping to replay that victory in New Hampshire’s state primary. And they can point to uncanny parallels. As in 2006, the president in 2026 is a second-term Republican president suffering low approval ratings driven by an unpopular war in the Middle East, and Democrats are vying to retake Congress.

But whether that environment can allow another left-leaning Democratic upset in the Granite State is less guaranteed. In the two decades since Shea-Porter’s upset win, Democrats have settled on a more predictable, less disruptive strategy to hold the 1st Congressional District, allowing Rep. Chris Pappas to hold the seat since 2018. 

“That’s sort of the pattern that has been out there for a while now,” Sullivan said. 

Now, as Pappas leaves the district to run for U.S. Senate, some left-leaning Democratic candidates are hoping they can interrupt the New Hampshire Democratic establishment playbook on Tuesday. 

For Republicans vying for their party’s nomination for U.S. Senate and Congress, another question looms Tuesday: How much does President Donald Trump matter in 2026?

The Bulletin spoke to Sullivan, Democratic strategist Jim Demers, Republican strategists Dave Carney and Jim Merrill, and three political professors. Here’s what’s at stake on primary day. 

What are the chances of a progressive upset?

The possibility of a surprise progressive victory in either the Democratic U.S. Senate or 1st Congressional District primaries appears unlikely, observers say. However, the restless mood within the Democratic Party in the past few months could make things interesting.

Left-leaning Democratic Socialists of America-supported candidates have pulled off surprise victories in a variety of primaries this year, from New York and Colorado House seats to Michigan and Florida Senate seats. 

In both of New Hampshire’s most competitive Democratic primaries, polling indicates that the progressive candidate is behind her more centrist opponents but has gained ground in recent months. Karishma Manzur, a scientist and first-time candidate competing against Pappas, has reduced Pappas’s percentage lead from 43 points in April to 13 points in August, according to a University of New Hampshire survey. And Carleigh Beriont, another left-leaning candidate, has increased her polling share of 1st Congressional District primary from 3% in June to 12% in August, according to St. Anselm College polling. 

“A progressive upset remains plausible,” said Dante Scala, political science professor at the University of New Hampshire. Plausible, but not expected.

Pappas has spent nearly $11.54 million since January 2025, according to Federal Election Commission filings from the Aug. 19 filing period, a staggering sum. Carney argued that aggressive spending is an indication of concern caused by a challenge from Manzur. 

Meanwhile, in the primary to fill the open seat in 1st Congressional District, mainstream Democrats Maura Sullivan and Stefany Shaheen have dominated polls. But if the anti-establishment wave seen in other Democratic primaries arrives in New Hampshire, Beriont could benefit, Scala says. Though she is polling in third place, Beriont could win a plurality if Sullivan and Shaheen split the centrist or moderate vote. 

That would be a change of pace for New Hampshire Democratic congressional candidates over the past decade. Sullivan says she has heard demand among fellow Democrats in recent years. 

“People will say, ‘Why is it we always have to end up voting for the person who’s more centrist? When is it going to be our turn?’” she said.  

Carney, a former strategist for Rick Perry, argues a progressive win in the primary could energize Democrats, even if he would disagree with the choice. 

“We are not a crazy-ass state yet,” Carney said. “But nominating a bunch of socialists will give them energy. That will help in the general election because the left — the left of the left — is on fire. And the middle is not, and nor is our side on fire.”

Still, the progressives have major hurdles. Beriont and Manzur must overcome strong deficits in name recognition and campaign funding compared to their opponents. Sullivan and Pappas have run before, while Shaheen is the daughter of U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, giving all three natural political momentum, noted Wayne Lesperance, president of New England College and a former political science professor.

“The other piece is: Will they turn out?” Lesperance said of progressives. “Typically, people that are motivated to turn out have a connection to the party, which should favor a more establishment candidate.”

And New Hampshire Democrats might buck this year’s national left-leaning trend; the state has a long tradition of backing relatively moderate candidates. That’s often a strategic calculation — a concession by Democrats that independent voters are a major player in New Hampshire general elections. 

“The problem New Hampshire Democrats face is, you know, they might want in their heart of hearts to run more progressive campaigns or more aggressive campaigns, but I think they learned over the century that Republicans dominated the state that’s not what folks here necessarily are going to go for,” said Chris Galdieri, a politics professor at St. Anselm College. 

It’s also a function of the state primary electorate, which trends older in New Hampshire than in other states, he said. 

“This is a state that does not have a large minority population. It does not have a major urban center,” Galdieri said. “…You look at the surges of support for Abdul El-Sayed or Francesca Hong in the Upper Midwest and I don’t know that you have the same sort of potential base of support for those sorts of candidates (in New Hampshire).”

Will the ‘cautious centrist’ playbook continue to work for New Hampshire Democrats?

New Hampshire Democrats’ traditional approach to statewide and congressional campaigns can be traced to Jeanne Shaheen or former Gov. John Lynch.

The recipe may feel familiar: candidates who position themselves as pragmatic problem-solvers, not ideologues; who highlight federal funding victories, not bombastic floor speeches. It’s an approach geared more toward New Hampshire’s prevalence of college-educated, suburban voters, Galdieri says. 

“The model has been kind of a very traditional Democrat that kind of colors within the lines,” Merrill said. “None of them are from the DSA wing of the party, and they’re sober and serious, and they focus (on) constituent service.” 

To that template, Demers adds another characteristic: a focus on opposition to Donald Trump. 

“(Voters are) also looking at who is going to be the best voice to stand up and fight Trump in the next congressional session,” he said. “People have a lot of frustration, and a lot of people feel like they want change in this election, and that change is people who will stand up and take Trump on.” 

But while the playbook has worked successfully in the purple politics of New Hampshire, the primaries Tuesday could test that. Even if Pappas wins, for instance, a strong showing by Manzur could be an early indicator that the template needs to be updated, some argued. 

“It’s a very safe strategy when it works, until it doesn’t work anymore,” said Carney. “And the environment on their side has flipped. They don’t want polite. They want someone to go there to wreck the house, upset the apple cart, break the china.”

Will Trump affect the Republican primaries?

One major difference between 2006 and 2026 can be seen in the Republican primaries. Despite his low approval ratings among the general electorate, Trump continues to command high support within the Republican Party. And unlike Bush, Trump appears interested in continuing to wield that influence. 

“I really think that New Hampshire Republicans have finally and fully made their peace with Trump,” said Galdieri.

Merrill agreed, and pointed to Republican primaries in other states this year, in which Trump has helped defeat critics such as John Cornyn in Texas and Bill Cassidy in Louisiana.

“If you go back in the last 10 years and you look at the candidates who actively moved away from Donald Trump, it’s a very, very short list of successful ones,” he said.

That means the Republican fight for the 1st Congressional District nomination has not seen candidates waver on their support for Trump. Leading candidates Anthony DiLorenzo, Hollie Noveletsky, and Brian Cole have largely been supportive of the president’s positions on hot-button topics such as the Iran war and tariffs; the president endorsed DiLorenzo in July. 

And in the primary for U.S. Senate, the contest between former U.S. Sens. Scott Brown and John Sununu has to some extent been defined by Trump’s decision to endorse Sununu in February; an August University of New Hampshire survey found that Sununu led Brown by 40 points. 

“I think (Brown’s) air went out of his tent when Sununu got in the race, and then it was crushed when the president gave his endorsement,” Carney said. 

Lesperance said New Hampshire Republicans have managed to walk a daunting tightrope so far.

“They very much talk positively about the president, the president’s agenda, but at times you can hear them differ slightly,” he said. “In a way that’s subtle and that’s respectful and that has not earned them the ire of the president to this point.”

The lack of differentiation or interest in defying Trump suggests New Hampshire Republicans are wrestling less with their political identity than Democrats are, in part because of the relative stability that comes with being in leadership. But Merrill says the national dynamic for Democrats is also a reflection of the timing of this election, two years after Kamala Harris failed to stop Trump from his comeback win. 

“We went through what Democrats are going through now 10 years ago,” said Merrill, a former senior adviser to Mitt Romney in 2012, speaking on the Republican soul-searching caused after that election loss. 

Still, despite the relative ideological homogeneity in Tuesday’s Republican primaries, Merrill predicts the dynamic will only last so long. 

“Whatever the results of this fall are, I think you may start to see some people begin to look ahead as, ‘What does a Republican Party kind of post–Donald Trump look like?’… In 2027 you may start to see the outer contours of that.”

What will turnout tell us?

In addition to the winners, the voter turnout Tuesday could have effects on the November elections — especially when it comes to enthusiasm. 

On Sept. 3, Secretary of State Dave Scanlan predicted that 145,751 Republicans and 103,024 Democrats will vote Tuesday, based on an analysis of party registration and past elections. New Hampshire Republicans traditionally participate at higher rates than Democrats in state primaries, Scanlan told reporters. 

But some New Hampshire pundits say Trump’s low approval rating and the national push to flip the House and Senate could change that. “One of the things that would genuinely surprise me is if Republican turnout outweighs Democratic turnout,” Scala said, adding: “The excitement on the Democratic side seems to me to be a lot, a lot higher.”

Merrill agrees about the potential significance of Democratic turnout. “If it’s significantly above what it’s been, then that’s going to be a very promising leading indicator for them in November,” he said. 

Where should observers look for clues tonight?

There are a number of specific polling precincts that could give an indication of where things are heading Tuesday night, experts say.

Manchester Wards 1 and 2 traditionally command the highest Democratic turnout and report their results early, Sullivan noted; turnout in the Democratic primaries there will be an early sign of how high Democratic energy is generally, she said.

Demers will have an eye on Nashua, a city that “goes both ways” in general elections and could signal which party has momentum.

For those watching the Democratic 1st Congressional District primary, results in Dover, Portsmouth, and Somersworth could show the strength of the progressive vs. establishment candidates, while unusual Democratic turnout in Bedford, a Republican town that has become more purple recently, could also tell a story.

Finally, Scala says if Manzur’s progressive challenge to Pappas is to succeed, she must demonstrate gains beyond college towns like Durham, Keene, and Hanover, and give a strong showing in Concord and Manchester, Pappas’ hometown. 

Of course, the real analysis will begin after the results come in — both for pundits and for strategists, Merrill noted. “It’s good to win in November, but when you lose, those can be clarifying, transformational experiences,” Merrill said. 

Tuesday’s primary will be New Hampshire’s last in September, after legislators passed a law to move the state primary to June beginning in 2028. At least one observer is okay with that. 

“Can we have a worse day for an election than the day after Labor Day?” said Sullivan. “Like, oh my God.”