Democratic Party’s 2024 national autopsy not kind to Joyce Craig’s gubernatorial campaign

The Democratic National Committee commissioned an “autopsy” of the party’s losses in 2024, and while much of the draft report centers on Kamala Harris’ failed presidential bid, it also includes criticisms of Joyce Craig’s unsuccessful campaign for New Hampshire governor.

In 2024, Craig beat out Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington (who is running again this year) for the Democratic nomination. She then lost to now-Gov. Kelly Ayotte, a Republican, in the general election.

Nationally, the autopsy — a nearly 200-page exploration of where Democrats went wrong — has been panned by critics who say it omits important factors, like voter frustration with the war in Gaza and the lack of a true competition after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race. And its authors cautioned that the report released was an unfinished draft. The report even includes annotations repeatedly explaining that the authors of the report were unable to provide evidence of the claims within.

Nevertheless, the crux of the report’s findings was that Democrats failed to make an “affirmative case” for themselves. Rather, Harris’ pitch to voters was less about what she could do for them and more about why President Donald Trump would be damaging to the country. 

“The Harris campaign appears to have relied on Trump being unacceptable rather than building an affirmative case for Harris,” the report reads. “Base voters needed reasons to vote FOR Harris as well as against Trump.”

The report also delves into some down-ballot races, including Craig’s, concluding that the former Manchester mayor’s challenges “mirrored the national campaign’s struggles with Harris.” It points out that Craig underperformed compared to Harris in the state by 6.4 percentage points.

“Both campaigns faced the same challenge: difficulty defining the candidate and opponent, building enthusiasm, or making a compelling case,” the report reads. “Harris’ win in NH may be more an anti-Trump than pro-Harris outcome.”

The report calls Ayotte “a strong candidate” due to her previous tenure in the U.S. Senate and her moderate profile. It cites the high percentage — 8.5% — of New Hampshire voters who split their ballot between Ayotte and Harris, and it notes that Craig underperformed everywhere: urban, rural, and suburban areas, as well as liberal strongholds like Manchester, Nashua, the Portsmouth suburbs, and the Concord area.

Much of Craig’s campaign involved associating Ayotte with Trump (who lost New Hampshire in three consecutive presidential elections) — a tactic to which the report attributes her loss. The report claimed Craig’s team “never established what Craig stood for beyond ‘not Ayotte/Trump.’”

“Strong opponents matter, but Craig’s execution problems were determinative,” it read. “When you can’t define yourself and can’t generate enthusiasm, you lose even when your party’s presidential candidate wins the state.”

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Through a spokesperson, Craig declined to speak to the Bulletin for this story. A former Craig campaign staffer told the Bulletin that nobody involved in the report reached out to the campaign before its release.

Indeed, notations throughout the report caution that “no evidence” was provided for certain sections, including the section on Craig, and that “public reporting and data contradict several claims.”

However, UNH political scientist Dante Scala said New Hampshire Democrats’ current messaging continues to tie Ayotte and other Republicans to Trump.

“Ever since Trump became the leader of the Republican Party back in 2016, New Hampshire Democrats have tried to connect the Republican nominee for governor to Trump,” Scala said. “And on the one hand, that’s worked very well when it’s come to federal elections. New Hampshire Republicans haven’t won a federal election since Trump became the nominee, whether it’s president or U.S. Senate or the U.S. House. However, they’ve gone zero for five when it’s come to winning the governor’s seat.”

Scala believes this is “part” of why Democrats failed to win the State House’s corner office.

“They’ve had to learn and relearn that voters in New Hampshire tend to make distinctions between the candidates running for governor and the candidates running for federal office, including the president,” he said.

Still, he thinks it’s a “one-dimensional answer.”

Scala posits that there are three main baskets of issues that impact New Hampshire politics locally: taxes, social issues, and crime.

He said Republicans, in the minds of voters, took the advantage on taxes, where they’ve long been forcefully opposed to a state income or sales tax. Ayotte, a former attorney general, also won on crime after effectively exploiting rural/urban divisions in New Hampshire to attack Craig’s hometown of Manchester as crime-ridden, he said. On social issues, where Democratic candidates who support abortion rights typically have an electoral advantage, Scala said Ayotte was able to assuage fears about further restrictions.

“When a national report is written, sometimes some of the local context is lost,” he said.