Cook Report: Pivotal New Hampshire Senate race shifts to ‘toss up’

(The Center Square) —  The election forecasting Cook Political Report has updated its rating for New Hampshire's wide-open U.S. Senate race to "toss-up" in a sign that Republican chances of flipping the Democratic-held seat are improving.

The race to replace outgoing Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen has shifted rightward from a “leans Democrat” rating to a "toss-up" citing gains by GOP candidate and former Sen. John Sununu in recent polling against Rep. Chris Pappas, a four-term Democrat who won the party's nomination in the recent primary. 

"We concede that it could still move back in Democrats’ direction before Election Day," Jessica Taylor, editor at Cook, said in a statement. "The central question in the race is whether Sununu’s brand is enough to escape the anchor of a deeply unpopular President Donald Trump — perhaps also with the help of Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte’s strong showing atop the ticket." 

The report noted that Sununu's supporters have already outspent pro-Pappas groups by almost a 2-1 margin — with nearly $9 million for Democrats to $16.6 million for Republicans. That has some Pappas allies concerned that the national party isn't devoting enough attention to the key race.

“Even in a light blue state, the amount of money national Republicans have dedicated to this race is a flashing red light for Democrats,” Taylor said. 

Pappas posted a video on social media in response to the rating change tying Sununu's Senate bid to President Donald Trump, whom the Cook report pointed out remains deeply unpopular in the state. 

"That means this is a highly competitive contest," Pappas said in a video on X. "I’m up against Donald Trump’s hand-picked candidate, John Sununu, who stands with him on the war in Iran, on higher prices, and on cuts to healthcare."

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Sununu, a member of one of New Hampshire's most storied political families, served in the U.S. Senate from 2003 to 2008 before he was defeated by Shaheen. He beat Scott Brown, a former Massachusetts senator, in the Sept. 8 Republican primary. 

Pappas, serving his fourth term in Congress from the state’s 1st Congressional District, jumped into the Senate race in April after Shaheen declined to seek reelection after three terms. He defeated several challengers in the Democratic primary. 

A University of New Hampshire poll released in August showed Sununu and Pappas nearly tied, at 45% Sununu to 43% Pappas, within the margin of error. 

Cook Political Report is the latest election handicapper to signal a rightward shift in the Senate race, which is considered key to Democrats' efforts to win a majority in the upper chamber in the upcoming midterms. 

A few days ahead of the Sept. 8 primary, Inside Elections shifted the New Hampshire Senate race from “tilts Democrat” to a “toss-up” rating, also citing Sununu's momentum in private and public polling. 

New Hampshire currently has an all-Democratic congressional delegation and voted for Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election by a margin of 2.8 percentage points.

Republicans have a 53-45 edge over Democrats in the U.S. Senate, with two independents caucusing with the minority party.