City still teetering on the cusp of growth

The Master Plan, which was adopted last year, included the comments "as of 2005, Laconia appears to be on the cusp of a significant increase in new single family housing units." Three years later the city remains on the cusp, with construction slowed and sales stalled at the dozen largest residential projects. In 2005, as city officials and community leaders braced for a spate of accelerated growth, Russ Thibeault of Applied Economic Research cautioned "don't count your chickens before they're hatched." Although more than 1,900 units were planned and approved, he ventured that "some of these projects will never see the light of day." Noting signs of a weakening property market, Thibeault said that unlike the slump of the 1990s, when units were built but not sold or started but not completed, this time around he expected the units would simply not be built. "I don't think the bubble will burst," he remarked. "It will just fizzle out." In fact, the pace of growth began to slow in 2006, when 341 building permits with a total value of $40.3-million were issued, compared to 542 permits worth $65.3-million the year before. Although 431 permits were issued in 2007, the value dropped 14-percent to $34.7. According to data gathered from the Planning and Assessing departments, of 642 planned units, both single-family homes, manufactured housing and attached condominiums spread among eleven projects, 82 lots and units, 13-percent of the total, have been sold. Moreover, construction has been delayed or interrupted at a number of other approved projects. For example, last week the Planning Board granted an extension to Shaker Hill Estates, LLC, which after completing $1-million worth of site work found itself without financing for 125 planned units. While work continues on several projects sales have languished. Weirs Beach Village on Endicott Street North is offering cottages of between 720 and 800 square feet starting at about $140,000, but has yet to record a sale. Likewise, Beaver Pond Estates on Rollercoaster Road plans 49 townhouse condominiums, on 8.7 acres. but has yet to build or sell a unit. The developer of Paugus Woods on White Oaks Road, which was approved for 93 single-story prefabricated units priced from $199,000 to $299,000 on 40 acres, has put the project on the market for $2,325,000, or $25,000 per home site. Sales at other subdivisions are stagnant. At Governor's Crossing on Endicott Street East , 11 of 80 lots have sold. At Nature's View off Van Buren Avenue, 14 of 51 lots have sold. At Moulton Cove off Hilliard Road, 18 of 42 townhouse condominium units have sold. At Trail Haven on Barbara Boulevard 9 of the 16 lots have sold. At Windemere Heights off Parade Road, 15 of the 31 lots have sold. And at Meredith Bay, which began as Akwa Soleil, 15 of 124 lots have sold while a third of the sales are less than arm's length transactions and Shanner Homes of Bedford, which purchased two lots, is in foreclosure. By contrast, at Beacon Street West 42 of the first 55 condominium units fashioned from the shell of the Allen-Rogers factory have sold. Meanwhile, according to the most recent estimates of the United States Census Bureau, the population of the city has grown at less than half the pace of that of the county since the turn of the century and, since 2004, has shrunk. The population of Belknap County increased 8.4-percent between 2000 and 2007, the third fastest rate of growth of New Hampshire's ten counties, trailing only Merrimack and Carroll. During the same period, Laconia's population grew 3.3-percent . Among the county's eleven municipalities only Tilton, at 3.1-percent, recorded slower growth. Moreover, the Census Bureau reports that Laconia's population peaked at 17,082 in 2004, but had dropped to 16,950 by July 1, 2007. The slumping housing market, roiling financial crisis and nearing economic recession have knocked the forecast of the Master Plan into a cocked hat.