Ice out? Almost, but not quite

GILFORD — Wind, rain and warmer temperatures have led to the ice disappearing rapidly, but after cruising over Lake Winnipesaukee in his Cessna 172, Dave Emerson said Monday ice-out is close, but not there yet.

“I don’t think it will go beyond Monday, but somewhere between Thursday and Sunday especially if it warms up,” said Emerson, estimating it would happen later this week or next. Emerson started calling ice-out just out of high school in 1979, and has been consistently making the determination for the past 23 years.

Emerson is the owner of Emerson Aviation, located at Laconia Municipal Airport, on Aviation Drive. He and his fellow flight instructors at Emerson Aviation will be in the sky everyday as usual, but now are eyeing key areas, to make the long-awaited call.

The airport is near Lily Pond, which Emerson said was clear of ice over the weekend. That is a tell-tale sign the Big Lake will be coming soon, generally with five to 10 days.

Other signs are surrounding lakes, which are smaller and more shallow, being essentially ice-free. Emerson said when the water temperature hits 34 degrees, ice-out tends to be about a week away, and the water temperature on Monday was around 33.

There is no true science to ice-out. It's defined by the ability of the M/S Mount Washington to make its way to each port as indicated on the nautical map of Winnipesaukee: Alton Bay, Center Harbor, Meredith, Weirs Beach and Wolfeboro.

Alton, Meredith and The Weirs were mostly clear of ice Monday, aside from a couple areas where buildup happens as the wind moves chunks around. The Broads had white caps crashing in the cold, but iceless water; Meredith Bay was mostly open except for near Eagle Island; and The Weirs was ice-free.

Emerson said Center Harbor is sheltered by hills. Without the wind, the ice can stay a little while longer than other spots. This was the case on Monday, as Center Harbor still had too much visible ice. Wolfeboro Bay still has significant ice, and hasn’t cleared enough yet.

Overall, the lake is about 80% ice-free.

“The rain does a number on it, and we had that yesterday,” Emerson said. “There is some dark ice out there, but the sun will start eating it up. The wind is what typically does the most.”

Because ice-out is his judgment call, he said there can still be ice remaining in coves, as long as the Mount could make its voyage.

“I just need the ports of call to be ice-free,” Emerson said.

When it comes to ice-out, it can be difficult to gauge the exact timing. He said there have been years where conditions drastically changed overnight. Just a week ago, Emerson said thought ice-out would be April 23-25, which tends to be the most common time.

Ice-in was Jan. 12 this year, and Emerson said that was about average, as it normally takes place in the first couple weeks of the year. As for the impending ice-out, Emerson said this will be on the earlier side, but definitely not the soonest. It has ranged from March 17, 2024 — when ice-in actually only lasted for a single day — to May 12, 1888, when there was no Mount, and it's not clear how the call was made.

Emerson has asked around, but finds it increasingly difficult to find the information as time goes on. He believes some ice-outs in May, called in the 1800s, may have been people calling ice-out when the lake was completely clear. As for the ones on the early side, there were two record early ice-out calls within a 10-year period.

In modern times, Emerson has been the one to call it since he took over for pilot Bob Aldrich at age 18, just one year out of high school. He made the call with his father from 1979 to 1983, and then a stint from 1986 to 1992. Emerson went on hiatus for construction work until 2003, and he has been calling both ice-in, and ice-out, since.

With his experience and so much interest across the lake, Emerson will speak about the ice-out tradition and its history at the Meredith Historical Society at 7 p.m. on Tuesday, May 5.

Ice-out, he said, is of particular interest to many in the community, noting island residents eye this time as when they can get out to their houses and camps to prepare for the summer season.

It opens the water up for construction and repairs on the islands, as barges can make their way out. Emerson said it is even the subject of office pools. The call is also a sure sign of spring after the long New Hampshire winter, and gets the region thinking about the warmer months to come.

For all these reasons, he tries to be as exact as possible.

Emerson said there is plenty about his career he loves, including flying commercially and charters, but this very well might be the best aspect.

“I find this to be the most satisfying part of my job,” Emerson said. “Doing this as a community service and trying to just continue the tradition. I’ve been doing this all my life, and it’s really the fun part."