Housing market trends so far, considerations going forward

A lot of friends and clients have been asking me recently regarding my thoughts on what 2025 will look like for the housing market here in the Lakes Region and New Hampshire. 

To answer that question, let's first look at how the state's numbers came out in 2024. I remember at the start of 2024, State of New Hampshire Association of Realtors members indicated optimism for an increase in listing inventory. However, the results showed the inventory and sales activity turned out less positive. 

For the 12 months of 2024, New Hampshire single-family home sales were down 4.8% compared to 2023, with 9,293 single-family home sales, according to the Warren Group. Condominium sales were also down 5.4%, with 3,118 statewide sales. 

However, New Hampshire's tight inventory supply and huge demand increased the median single-family home price by 10.39% statewide in 2024. The final median sales price for 2024 was $485,000. Regarding condominiums, sales prices increased 6.8% compared to 2023, with the final median sales price of $389,933, according to the Warren Group

I've pulled the 25 towns and cities in the Lakes Region and compared the sales activity from Jan. 1 to Feb. 17 this year with 2024's sales activity for the same period to give an idea on what direction we’re heading. Here are the results: 

2025 activity

Single-family homes sales: 105 units; median days on the market was 35; median sales price was $455,000; average sales price was $694,748; lowest sales price was $132,500; highest sales price was $5.25 million; and total sales volume was $72.95 million.

Condominium sales: 32 units; median days on the market was 32; median sales price was $362,500; average sales price was $423,171; lowest sales price was $24,000; highest sales price was $899,000; and total sales volume was $13.54 million.

2024 activity

Single-family homes sales:  99 units; median days on market was 27; median sales price was $430,000; average sales price was $630,834; lowest sales price was $130,000; highest sales price was $6.3 million; and total sales volume was $62.45 million.

Condominium sales: 31 units; median days on market was 17; median sales price was $340,000; average sales price was $435,812; lowest sales price was $110,000; highest sales price was $1.2 million; and total sales volume was $13.51 million.

For the first six weeks of 2025, trends for single-family homes show an increase in the total units sold and an increase in the median and average sales prices for single-family homes. Total sales volume has increased considerably. 

For 2025, condominium unit sales are up by only one unit. Median sales prices have increased slightly, and average sales prices have decreased slightly. Total sales volume is up a hair in 2025. 

What trends are we

seeing moving forward? 

The median price of a single-family home in New Hampshire increased by 71% between 2019 and 2024, according to the New Hampshire Association of Realtors.

Prices are so high the state's housing affordability index is now 59, which is not a good statistic. 

The market is still strong in the Lakes Region despite the low inventory because of the demand. However, buyers are more discerning. They’re not bidding willy-nilly anymore like they were a few years ago and that’s a good thing. Homes are sitting on the market longer these days. Sadly, many potential buyers are priced out of the market, and there's only a 1.7-month supply of inventory. A balanced market would be a six-month supply of inventory. 

Cash sales during 2024 and 2025 have been very strong throughout the state. An increasing trend in the Lakes Region has been investor buyers purchasing single-family homes and condominiums to rent out on Airbnb and VRBO for weekly rentals. This has affected the market, reducing inventory levels and changing the demographics of neighborhoods. 

It was reported that Greater Boston saw an increase of 7.5% in active listings year over year in January, while new listings increased by 13.8%. The Greater Boston market also involves Strafford and Rockingham Counties in Southeast New Hampshire. Rhode Island has seen similar increases. New Hampshire is following the same trajectory. 

Talking with realtors up north in Coos County, it appears the market has softened. It has cooled down compared to the very strong market they experienced during the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. The median single-family price increased by only 1.7% to $232,000 in that county, the smallest statewide. I wish we could see the same median price in Belknap County.

It's estimated New Hampshire will need 60,000 more housing units by 2030. The shortage is currently 23,500 units, according to New Hampshire Housing, further increasing demand and thus, raising housing prices.

There are still many homeowners unwilling to sell in the current market because they’re sitting on a 2% to 4% mortgage rate, and they don’t want to give it up for something closer to 7%. I feel lifestyle changes, career changes, cost of ownership increases, retirement, divorces, infrequent use of second homes, and other factors will start moving the market forward, and we will start to see things loosen up in 2025.

It’s very hard to accept that while starter home prices climbed 53.7% over the last five years, payments more than doubled due to mortgage rates increasing from roughly 4% to 7%. 

Monthly home payments on a medium-priced starter home in New Hampshire have risen 164% since 2019. The monthly mortgage payment for the typical starter home in New Hampshire is now $2,600, which would require an income of $105,985 to be considered affordable. This percentage increase was reported to be the highest in the country.

We are seeing a definite cooling of over-asking offers, bidding wars, and eliminating home inspections to make offers more attractive. That’s a good thing. As prices increase, consumers want to know what they are buying, and a home inspection should be paramount. 

I anticipate that inventory levels in the Lakes Region will continue to be challenging, putting upward pressure on pricing. At the same time, I’m seeing an increase in overpriced properties with days on the market increasing. In the six weeks of 2025, as shown above, it’s a classic supply and demand problem. We need more homes available to purchase. Yes, considerable new construction is taking place in the Lakes Region. However, the pricing has been in the higher price ranges, which does not solve our problem… lack of affordable housing. 

So, looking forward, are we going to keep growing at these numbers in leaps and bounds? It will likely stop at some point and readjust. It always does. In the 1970s, high inflation and oil prices took over, and look at what happened. The go-go 1980s did not end well, with thousands of foreclosures throughout New Hampshire. In 2000, we had the .com bubble; when it burst, the NASDAQ fell 78% from its peak in October. In 2008, the Great Recession was the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Nobody can predict the future. 

During the COVID-19 pandemic, we saw all sorts of stimulus, and record amounts of money were spent trying to stabilize the economy. I feel the government pumped a ton of helium into the country’s economy, and now we are at a point where we have to sustain ourselves. It will be a very interesting year to follow.

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This article was written by Frank Roche, president of Roche Realty Group with offices in Meredith and Laconia, and can be reached at 603-279-7046. Visit rocherealty.com to learn more about the Lakes Region and its real estate market.