Spotlight on homes: New Hampshire market analysis

At present time, there are 1,007 single-family homes for sale in New Hampshire. The median listing price is $650,000. The lowest listing price is $50,000. However, it is an auction property listed for bid in the North Country in Northumberland. The highest listing price is $22 million for a 10,176-square-foot oceanfront estate at 17 Straw Point in Rye, New Hampshire. The property has been on the market for 224 days and is located in the same straw point section of Rye that recorded the highest sales price in New Hampshire at $25 million last year. In the past, I used to jog past the two properties, a breathtaking site, but never would I guess a selling price of $25 million.

For condominiums, there are presently 292 condominiums listed for sale in New Hampshire. The median listing price is $320,000. The highest condominium listing price is $1.37 million, located at 239 Skimobile Road in Conway, New Hampshire.

I pulled the 25 towns and cities located in the Lakes Region, and there are currently 178 single-family homes listed for sale. The lowest price single-family home listed for sale was in Wakefield for an 800 square-foot 1950s vintage mobile home with an addition on .23 acres listed at $109,000. The highest listing price was $12.99 million for a Lake Winnipesaukee compound on Governors Island with three contiguous lots on 666 feet of shorefront with two spacious homes on 3.5 acres. The property has been on the market for 35 days.

I researched the number of price changes we saw for single-family homes in the state of New Hampshire between Jan. 1 and April 2. There were 935 price changes, which certainly indicates the market is transitioning and sellers are becoming more flexible with their pricing.

I researched the same for condominiums in New Hampshire, and there was a total of 229 price reductions between Jan. 1 and April 2, reflecting the same trend.

I also pulled up another indicator of the market transitioning. I looked up the number of single-family homes in New Hampshire that had their status changed to expired or terminated in MLS. There were 556 homes where their status was changed between Jan. 1 and April 2. There were a lot of upper priced homes that showed up on this list. The median price was 649,000, and the average price was $868,441. I feel this is an indication that the market was getting ahead of itself. The huge run we experienced during COVID in the past few years has likely hit a ceiling. Many homeowners have been pricing their properties at levels we saw during the pandemic with the low-interest rates, and as a result, the affordability index spiked.

Looking ahead to our spring market in the Lakes Region and the remainder of 2024, I expect we will see appreciation take a step back, but it certainly will not plummet. I feel the low supply of houses on the market will protect against a major market drop. I know a number of market experts are predicting we are approaching bubble territory; however, you have to consider the following: today’s homeowners stand on much more secure footing than coming out of the 2008 financial crisis, with many homeowners and borrowers having substantial home equity. For a good 2024 outcome in the Lakes Region real estate market, we need to see inventories of homes for sale turn considerably higher. Any additional inventory, in turn, would ease the upward pressure on home prices, helping them somewhat settle back from the peak or near-peak levels. And, of course, mortgage rates need to cool off; however, from the sounds of one of our federal officials’ comments today, the rate reductions may not be as promised as the market was projecting.

From my own personal perspective, I always look back at the sales volume for Roche Realty Group during the first quarter of 2024 to see how the full year might look. I was very pleased to see a major 74.1% increase in for the first three months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. We were fortunate to close on some excellent sales; however, there are three quarters left, and after practicing real estate for 47 years, I know that you have to expect storm clouds and changing market conditions. I know we need more inventory to keep the train rolling.

According to WalletHub.com, New Hampshire has once again been named “the best state in the country for taxpayer return on investment.” This is the ninth time the Granite State has taken top honors in the analysis. Thirty sets of data points measuring the cost and quality of state government services were used. The report also stated New Hampshire ranked #1 for the lowest total sales and excise taxes as a percentage of personal income. Another major cut the New Hampshire government made was the tax on interest and dividend income. That tax will be completely phased out by year's end. New Hampshire’s effort to streamline government is working, and the Granite State's high economic ranking is a direct result.

In another recent report on April 2, WalletHub.com reported New Hampshire has the second lowest tax burden in the country, ranked just behind Alaska. This report was based on the cost of three types of taxes — property tax, individual income tax, and sales and excise taxes — as a share of total income and personal income in the state. It’s interesting to note that New York has the highest tax burden, followed by:

2. Hawaii

3. Vermont

4. Maine

6. Connecticut

10. Rhode Island

20. Massachusetts

So, New Hampshire again ranked much better than the five other New England states with higher overall tax burdens.

The above economic wins are just another reason why New Hampshire is such a great state to call home.