Brian Strohm: Science says this is not the year to hold rally

To The Daily Sun,

From Aug. 7- 16, the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally is taking place. An Aug. 6 article in the Washington Post (one of several recent news reports) lead with the headline,

‘We cannot stop people’: 250,000 are expected at South Dakota motorcycle rally.

The mayor of Sturgis says there’s not much to do but encourage “personal responsibility,” set up sanitation stations and give out masks — though face coverings won’t be required. (www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/08/06/motorcycle-rally-coronavirus/)

The Laconia Motorcycle Week is scheduled in two weeks, and I implore the City Council to use common sense and prudent public health science to cancel this year’s rally. We are in the middle of a global pandemic which is far from under control in the United States. Since the initial outbreaks in the states of Washington, New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut, over five months ago, rolling outbreaks have been occurring throughout this country with no end in sight. No state is immune.

High risk events such as large public/private gatherings and congregating at bars and restaurants have been proven epidemiologically to be the source of many localized outbreaks. Covid-19 is caused by an animal-borne coronavirus that has not been seen before in the human population. Every one of us is theoretically susceptible.

The CDC estimates that there are as many as 10 times more coronavirus cases in the US than have been identified through our testing efforts. In NH there have been approximately 6,800 positive cases identified as of Aug. 6. Applying the CDC estimation factor, that results in a total of 68,000 potential NH cases. New Hampshire has a population of approximately 1.4 million people. If we assume infection confers some level of immunity for those 68,000 potential cases, this translates into 1.3 million susceptible NH residents.

Permitting and encouraging the influx of thousands of motorcyclists and accompanying tourists into the Lakes Region who will be congregating at bars and restaurants and assembling in large groups is not in the public’s best interest. With no vaccine and limited effective clinical interventions, this seeding event is a recipe for disaster. Visit the City of Sturgis webcam to witness what is happening there at this very moment (https://www.sturgis-sd.gov/webcams-in-and-around-sturgis). Currently, social distancing, face coverings and good hand sanitation are our most effective control measures. The best way to avoid contracting this virus is to avoid contacting the virus.

As a motorcycle enthusiast, I am not against the annual Laconia Motorcycle Week, but 2020 is not a good year. The public health risks are too great. In the best interest of the citizens of the Lakes Region and beyond, this event deserves to be cancelled this year.

Brian Strohm, Ph.D.

Epidemiologist

Gilford