In turnout Tuesday, Democrats outperform Republicans — and 2018 

New Hampshire’s primary results Tuesday continued a well-worn narrative in the Granite State: Voters chose familiar, household names over insurgent outsiders to lead their parties. 

Those include Stefany Shaheen, the Democratic nominee vying against Republican Anthony DiLorenzo for the 1st Congressional District; John E. Sununu, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate; and Chris Pappas, Sununu’s Democratic opponent.

But the results also highlighted another trend. Across the state, Democratic state primary voters outnumbered Republican voters, results from the Associated Press indicated Wednesday afternoon. 

In the statewide U.S. Senate primaries, Democrats made up 58.53% of the total voters and Republicans 41.47%, an analysis by the Bulletin shows. 

A similar split occurred in the 1st Congressional District, long seen as the more competitive of the state’s two congressional districts. Democratic voters in that district made up 57.86% of the share of voters Tuesday and Republicans 42.14%. 

The proportions are based on Associated Press tallies with 97% to 99% of votes counted Wednesday afternoon, and could change when the Secretary of State’s Office certifies the final votes later this week.

The party that does not control the White House historically performs better in midterm elections than the party that does, as voters in the president’s party fall into complacency. 

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But Tuesday’s results suggest New Hampshire Democrats also improved their turnout in 2026 when compared to 2018, the last time a Republican president — also Donald Trump — faced a midterm election. 

In 2018, Democrats made up 56.53% of voters in the state primaries for the 1st District, compared to 57.86% on Tuesday. There was no U.S. Senate race in 2018 to compare to 2026. 

In 2018, Pappas and Annie Kuster won the 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts, respectively, and Democrats retook control of the state House and Senate, losing that control in 2020. 

Democrats’ higher share of voters in the primaries do not necessarily mean they will prevail in the general election. Tuesday’s high Democratic voter turnout could be affected by an unusually competitive Democratic race for the 1st District, a seat left vacant by Pappas, and for the open U.S. Senate seat, vacated by Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, who is retiring.

Still, the turnout differences Tuesday — and their similarity to 2018 — could portend challenges for Republicans to flip seats in New Hampshire’s all-Democratic congressional delegation this November, even as Sununu has closed a polling gap with Pappas. An Aug. 26 University of New Hampshire poll found Sununu leading Pappas 45% to 43% in a hypothetical general election matchup, within the 2.1% margin of error. 

The Democrats’ performance defied the predictions of Secretary of State Dave Scanlan, who had predicted a week before the election that Republicans would make up 58.6% of the overall electorate Tuesday. Judging from past elections and voter registration data, Scanlan had predicted 145,751 voters selecting Republican ballots and 103,024 voters selecting Democratic ballots. Instead, with 97% of ballots reported on Wednesday afternoon, 150,684 voters selected Democratic ballots in the U.S. Senate primaries, compared with 106,779 for Republicans.

It is not clear how many Democratic primary voters were undeclared voters, who are allowed to vote in either primary in New Hampshire. 

As of August, Republicans had an advantage in registrations in New Hampshire. Of the 888,475 total registered voters, there were 297,451 registered Republican voters (33.47% of all registered voters), 243,864 registered Democrats (27.45%), and 347,160 registered undeclared voters (39.07%), the Secretary of State’s Office said before the election.