Plymouth Prof questions global warming

James P. Koermer, professor of Meteorology at Plymouth State University, recalled that as chief weather forecaster for the United States Army in Europe he was assuring a four-star general of a dry day when the briefing was interrupted by a full colonel who was soaked to the skin.

"There was no rain on the continent and I had no rain in my forecast," Koermer remarked. "But, there was one cloud right over the head of that colonel."

Perhaps not surprisingly, Koermer was among 115 scientists to affix his name to a full page advertisement in the The New York Times this week disputing President Barack Obama's call that few challenges are more pressing than "combating climate change" and his statement that "the science is beyond dispute and the facts are clear."

"I'm skeptical of a 20-day forecast," said Koermer, who predicted and modeled weather and climate as an Air Force officer for 21 years before retiring as lieutenant colonel.

Koermer said that he had not seen the advertisement, but despite his degree in mathematics from the University of Maryland, study of meteorology at the University of Texas and masters and doctoral degrees from the University of Utah considered himself "a light-weight" among the signatories. "These are very highly educated and extremely intelligent people," he said.

Claiming that alarm about climate change is "grossly overstated," the signatories declared that "the computer models forecasting rapid temperature change abjectly fail to explain recent climate behavior," which they noted has been marked by "no net global warming for over a decade."

The advertisement was paid for by the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank headquartered in Washington. "I have no formal ties to the Cato Institute," Koermer said, stressing that his reservations about forecasts of global warming were grounded in science, not politics. "I'm not opposed to developing alternative energy or conserving natural resources," he said.

"My main issue is with climate models," said Koermer. "I have a modeling background, I ran the Air Force modeling shop at Global Weather Central at Offutt Air Force Base in Nebraska," he continued. "The ultimate level of predictability for weather models is 14 days. Ask people if they believe a ten-day forecast."

Likening climate models to economic models, Koermer said that "climate is more problematic. You've heard of the 'butterfly effect,' where a butterfly flaps its wings in South America and there are tornadoes in Kansas. That's the chaos in the atmosphere."

Climate models, Koermer said, remembering the drenched colonel, are especially poor at managing clouds and moisture. "Water vapor makes up 95-percent of greenhouse gases," he noted, adding that clouds affect ground temperatures. High thin clouds are warming and low thick clouds are cooling," he said. "But, we only hear about carbon dioxide. Water vapor is never mentioned. And the models cannot monitor the feedbacks and interplay of moisture and clouds."

While reserving his deepest suspicions for climate modeling, Koermer also questioned some of the facts marshaled in support of predictions of global warming. "They talk about where the ice-caps are melting," he said, "but not about where they're growing." He said that 60-percent of Antarctica has cooled in the last 35 years while only one-eighth of the continent has warmed and the rest has remained unchanged. Likewise, Koermer said that the earth has been warmer in the past than it is today, referring particularly to the Middle Ages before the "little ice-age" when Greenland was farmed. He said he found that when tracing carbon dioxide and temperatures over long periods of time, levels of carbon dioxide decreased as temperatures rose.

"I just don't see enough evidence to justify a tipping point," Koermer remarked. "The science is not sound enough to support the conclusions." Unlike some who question global warming only to jump to the opposite conclusion, Koermer does not believe the planet is on the brink of another ice-age. "I'm a skeptic both ways," he insisted.

Comfortable in his skepticism, Koermer said it comes at a price. "if you are skeptical, there are problems getting published and you're not going to get much funding," he said. He suspected that some scientists were reticent to question the prevailing consensus.

But, Koermer is equally comfortable at Plymouth State, where he has taught since 1988 and directs the Judd Gregg Meteorology Institute. "I do forecast the weather," he laughed. "They call me in for graduation and other events."