Emerson calls ice-out on Winnipesaukee Sunday morning

GILFORD — It’s official: Dave Emerson called ice-out for Lake Winnipesaukee at 6:59 a.m. on Sunday morning. He said April 12 is a little on the early side, but not far from average.

Ice-out is called when the M/S Mount Washington can get to all five ports based on a nautical map of Lake Winni: Alton Bay, Center Harbor, Meredith Bay, Weirs Beach and Wolfeboro.

Emerson said that, on Saturday, students cancelled flight classes due to wind, so he made a specific flight to check the ice. He said there was still “quite a bit of ice” that day, but it was what he called “rotten ice.” Saturday was plenty windy, so he knew this could mean ice-out was coming soon.

“I said, 'OK, with 35 degree water temperatures and the wind blowing, I knew it wouldn’t last more than 24 hours,'” he said. “So, I went up at that first light to check it out, and I’m glad I did.”

On Sunday morning, Emerson took to the sky at the crack of dawn. Around 6:30 a.m., he flew directly to Center Harbor, where the ice had been stubborn last week, and there were floating chunks in the area of 3 Mile Island, blocking the route of the Mount. He had a feeling with the wind, and the thin ice, this would probably not last very long.

Emerson took his Cessna 172 above Wolfeboro Bay and saw it was clear, which had been a pesky area also. He then flew back up over Wolfeboro and Melvin Village, and while there was patchy ice in Back Bay, this did not interfere with making an ice-out call.

Emerson circled back to Center Harbor, and saw the ice chunks he observed only half an hour earlier were gone.

“That’s when I was able to call it,” Emerson said. “Sometimes ice-out can happen overnight, but this time, I was able to call it physically being up there.”

Emerson and his fellow flight instructors had been flying each day during the previous week, as members of the community were champing at the bit to hear the announcement. Some online activity showed people attempting to take matters into their own hands, declaring ice-out, but Emerson is, and has been, the one who makes the official call each year.

Emerson owns Emerson Aviation, which is located at Laconia Municipal Airport. He has been consistently calling ice-out since 2003. He was making calls as early as 1979, just out of high school, succeeding pilot Bob Alrich, who had been declaring ice-out since the 1950s.

Emerson made his initial calls with his father until 1983, and then had another stint between 1986 and 1992, before returning to Emerson Aviation 11 years later.

The earliest ice-out call was on March 17, 2024, with only one day of ice-in. The latest was on May 12, 1888, though it's unclear how the call was made. The most common time for ice-out is between April 23 and 25, and average is April 18.

According to local historian Warren D. Huse, the first SS Mount Washington was launched at Alton Bay, in spring 1872. A new Mount was launched on Aug. 11, 1940, at Black Brook, and went into service several weeks later. The Lady of the Lake, a steamship, was launched in 1849, with a similar route to the Mount.

Huse said he was unsure of how the calculation was made in the pre-aviation days, and this is something Emerson has also been trying to find out.

“In those early pre-aviation days, The Lady and The Mount didn’t begin their trips around the lake until early June, far later than any ice-out,” Huse said. “So I’m not sure how the calculation was made, other than perhaps a smaller vessel making a trip around the lake.”

Huse added he is unaware of any declarations made via hot-air balloon.

This winter had an interesting weather pattern. Ice-in was Jan. 12, and there was cold weather throughout. Emerson heard from ice anglers that when they were using an augur at the peak of winter, the ice was not quite as thick as expected.

While normal winters there can be 3 or 4 feet of ice, this year there was about 2 feet. He said this is one indicator for calling ice-out.

Emerson said there have been some years when spots like Alton Bay didn’t even get enough ice to open the ice runway, which requires at least 12 inches of ice.

“You can kind of gauge things by the thickness of the ice,” Emerson said. “So, if it is 3 to 4 feet, we start seeing the ice-out in late April. Two to 3 feet seems like mid-April.”

Ice-out doesn’t mean there is no ice left in the lake. He said boaters who want to hit the water in these early spring days should still be on the lookout for stray chunks, but the only notable hazards he saw were in Back Bay.

“The rest is clear,” Emerson said. “Even in East Alton, there was hardly any ice on that shoreline. By the end of the day today, it should be completely clear," he said Monday, "especially when it starts warming up into the 70s.”