Warm start, sudden cold, then snow – ice conditions eerily similar to 2017

MEREDITH — Those who have been living near Lake Winnipesaukee all winter know that most of the big lake was still open through January, and it was only after the arctic conditions on Friday and Saturday of last weekend that “ice-in” was finally declared. But there’s another category of people, such as those who will visit the region for the first time this winter for the 44th Great Meredith Rotary Ice Fishing Derby, who could be in for a nasty surprise.

That’s at the forefront of many people’s minds, especially for those who recall the tragic derby weekend of 2017, when three people died. All three were people who visited from out of state, and took snowmobiles out onto a lake that looked safe, but wasn’t.

In 2017, as in 2023, the lake didn’t freeze until just prior to the derby, and it was treated to a fresh blanket of snow — just as the forecast calls for this week — which hid the thin ice from view.

The Meredith Rotary Club, which operates the derby each year as its primary source of funding, directly confronted these safety issues with a video posted to icefishingnh.com.

“As we look around, [this] January was the warmest [January] on record, I believe, up here,” said Bill Golden, chair of the derby committee, in the video. “The ice conditions are not normal. ... It’s all about being safe.”

Golden encouraged anyone participating in the derby this year to “always, always fish with a buddy,” and to bring a few pieces of gear: A pole to test ice strength as you walk out, a pair of ice picks that can be used to help pull you out of the water should you fall in and, in case someone else falls through the ice, a length of rope that could be used to help pull them out.

“Lastly, don’t leave this equipment in the back of your pickup truck, the garage or on the shoreline,” Golden said. “Bring it with you.”

Barely frozen

Dave Emerson of Emerson Aviation declared on Sunday that all of Winnipesaukee was covered in ice. Yet, even in doing so, he said the ice that’s there isn’t much.

“It’s pretty much all the Broads, the entrance to Meredith Bay, Center Harbor, out by Bear Island, it’s very translucent,” Emerson said. “If I can see through it, it’s probably less than 2 inches thick.”

While there were temperatures well below zero on Friday and Saturday, those conditions also came with enough wind to prevent that deep freeze from turning open water into thick ice. Emerson and others noted that smaller bodies of water, better protected from wind, were the better place to look for solid ice.

Statewide derby

“The derby is a statewide thing, though it is based in Meredith,” said Chief David Bengtson of the Moultonborough Fire Department. In order to be added to the leaderboard, any qualifying fish must be brought to the derby headquarters at Meredith Bay. But, as Bengtson noted, the derby rules allow for that fish to be caught in any body of water in the state.

Moultonborough, with a sizable portion of Winnipesaukee within its town lines and near derby headquarters, usually sees a lot of activity during derby weekend. That was the case in 2017, when two men, both part of a larger group of snowmobilers, broke through thin ice hidden by several inches of new snow. The Mark O’Connell Foundation, formed to honor the memory of O’Connell and David Crosier, has since been working to improve awareness of ice safety and to help equip departments such as Moultonborough’s to respond to emergencies on the ice.

Bengtson said he sees “some similarities” between the conditions currently developing and what was in place in 2017.

“We just saw over the weekend that they declared ice-in, it raised some concern for me, it gives the indication that the ice is frozen over,” Bengtson said. “It is really hazardous out there, there is a lot of poor-quality ice out there, not a lot of thickness to it.”

Some areas of the lake, protected from wind, have several inches of ice, but there can be thin ice nearby. Ice strength is determined not just by thickness but also quality. Bengtson said there is ice on Winnipesaukee that was broken up by wind or rain, mixed with snow and then re-froze, which might be a few inches thick but not nearly as strong as expected. The winds have also created pressure ridges — areas where one shelf of ice is pushed up against another, creating a line of weakness across the lake’s surface.

Smaller ponds tend to be safer, Bengtson said, though it’s still important to presume the ice is unsafe until it’s been determined otherwise.

“The departments around Winnipesaukee, and in general around here, put a lot of training into doing ice rescues, open-water rescues. There’s rescues on the lake, but really people need to be self-aware and be aware of what’s out there,” Bengtson said. “If you don’t know, don’t go, and if you’re going to go out there, go slow.”

On the other side of the lake, Patrick O’Brien, a captain with the Alton Fire Department, has similar concerns.

“We’re kind of shaping up to very similar conditions to that year [2017], which is very unfortunate,” O’Brien said. “Any open areas froze over, certainly if we get more snow, the lake is going to look very inviting.”

O’Brien was on duty in 2017 when two snowmobilers, a father and his 15-year-old son, broke through thin ice. The father was rescued, but the boy, Arthur Remy, died.

“His name will live on with me for a while,” O’Brien said.

Since then — thanks in large part to the Mark O’Connell Foundation — Alton has an airboat for rescues, which O’Brien said will be staffed all weekend. Moultonborough now has a rescue craft with similar capabilities, also.

Rescue capabilities have been increased significantly in recent years, O’Brien said, but the best safety measure is good decision making.

Alton Bay was holding several bobhouses, according to O’Brien, but the ice beyond the bay could change rapidly.

“It gets incredibly variable, based on currents under the ice, wind and that kind of thing,” O’Brien said. “I would say it is unpredictably variable, and we don’t consider any ice safe unless it’s been drilled and measured.”