Paul B. Utiger: What wisdom can we gain from current tariff policy?

To The Daily Sun,

From a purely academic reference, these are the common pros and cons of current tariffs:

Pros: 1) Domestic protection; 2) New jobs; 3) Revenue; 4) Security; 5) Fair trade.

Cons: 1) High prices; 2) Trade disruption; 3) Retaliation; 4) Limited goods; 5) Inflation.

The eventual outcomes of these arguments will take years of long and slow adjustment. Perhaps in immediate and long-term catastrophe; perhaps in net gains. I cite both the immediate loss to market-based retirement plans and some evidence of gains in foreign investment and/or lack of retaliatory tariff measures ...

It can easily be argued that promised jobs and manufacturing will not ensue because our current and future economy has already forsaken countless old supply lines and skill sets. It can also be argued that such deficiencies could be rebuilt. Another argument suggests that massive tariffs could be used to negotiate balanced reciprocal tariffs — a tit for a tat ...

Determining the wisdom of these arguments is the same for all other arguments. In that consideration, what qualities generate the best outcome prediction?

OK: New jobs and supply lines and skills. Can they be re-implemented? I’d say automation obliterates thousands of old skill sets. Who will pay more for expensive manual labor? Old supply lines could be reset. But that is a complex equation involving niche and resources and market need. I would further predict that new jobs and invigorated manufacturing will be a wash. Measured against that potential outcome, this argument is unwise.

Carefully consider the realized potentials of tariff policy. Readers should please heavily weigh their next vote on their conclusions — and not on centuries of political party grandstanding, self-preservation and team loyalty. These outcomes are going to be felt immediately and, if pursued in their current dress, for countless years to come.

Paul B. Utiger

Laconia