The Thanksgiving NFL archive: 5 statistical anomalies that defy decades of football logic

Of all the great Thanksgiving traditions in the U.S., one that many families share is football.

Thanksgiving Day NFL games are as essential as turkey and pumpkin pie.

Sometimes, those Thanksgiving games are more than just background noise while family members argue about politics. But in other years, between massive upsets, extraordinary output and perfect passes, viewers could witness history.

Are these anomalies common enough to wager on through NFL betting apps or trade on at prediction markets? Probably not. But imagine how exciting it would have been if you had sprinkled something on any of the following five statistical anomalies from Thanksgiving Day NFL games that SBD examines here.

1. The Efficiency Paradox

Randy Moss was often unguardable throughout his career but on Thanksgiving in 1998, he took it to another level.

Moss had three receptions for 163 yards and three touchdowns in Minnesota’s 46-36 win against the Cowboys. All three receptions went for touchdowns, and he averaged 54.3 yards per catch in one of the most ridiculously efficient and explosive performances of all time.

While nobody has matched that combination on Turkey Day, several other receivers have had similarly efficient days, scoring multiple touchdowns on relatively few receptions.  

Mal Kutner was a perfect 2-for-2 for the Chicago Cardinals against the Detroit Lions in 1948, catching two passes for 70 yards and two TDs.

Cloyce Box was bought down on just one of his four receptions in 1950, finishing with 123 yards and three TDs for the Lions against the New York Yanks. Yes, these Yankees did play football, despite what those stats might tell you.

The following receivers turned three catches into two TDs on Thanksgiving:

• 2010: Deion Branch, Patriots vs. Lions, three catches, 113 yards, two TDs
• 1962: Gail Cogdill, Lions vs. Packers, three catches, 79 yards, two TDs
• 1962: Art Powell, New York Titans vs. Broncos, three catches, 57 yards, two TDs
• 1989: Cris Carter, Eagles vs. Cowboys, three catches, 53 yards, two TDs
• 2024: Jayden Reed, Packers vs. Dolphins, three catches, 24 yards, two TDs

2. Untouchable Single-Game Pillars

Perhaps the most unbreakable record in the NFL was set on Thanksgiving, when Ernie Nevers recorded a 40-point game for the Chicago Cardinals against the Chicago Bears in 1929.

Nevers rushed for six touchdowns and kicked four extra points, the latter setting him apart from Alvin Kamara, who had six rushing scores in a Christmas Day explosion in 2020.

Position players kicking extra points just doesn’t happen anymore, so a seventh score is going to be needed to top Nevers. Seeing as only Kamara has matched his six rushing touchdowns, while Dub Jones (1951) and Gale Sayers (1965) also scored six total touchdowns in a game, that doesn’t seem very likely.

In 1976, O.J. Simpson set the NFL record for rushing yards in a single game, gaining 273 for the Bills against the Lions. That number was eclipsed the following year by Walter Payton, and four others have since topped Payton.

Bobby Dillon had four interceptions for the Packers against the Lions in 1953, tying with several others for the most in a single game.

Another record came in a Lions-Packers Thanksgiving game, although in the other direction, as Detroit’s Jack Christiansen had a pair of punt returns for touchdowns, which is also tied for most in league history.

Those are tough to replicate for a lot of reasons, mainly because you can simply avoid a defensive back and punt returner.

3. Perfect Passer Rating Club

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The Thanksgiving NFL archive: 5 statistical anomalies that defy decades of football logic

A perfect passer rating (158.3) is achieved by a quarterback roughly once every 420 starts. Sixty-seven quarterbacks have accomplished it in league history, a total of 82 times.

It happened just once in 2025 and three times in 2024. It happens, but isn’t incredibly common.

It’s happened twice on Thanksgiving, both times in Lions games.

Dave Krieg posted a perfect passer rating for Detroit against the Bills in 1994, going 20 of 25 for 351 yards and three touchdowns.

Tom Brady was perfect in 2010 against the Lions, going 21 of 27 for 341 yards and four TDs. It’s one of three career-perfect rating games for Brady, with two of those coming against the Lions.

4. The Traditional Host Burden

Speaking of Detroit, it has been part of this Thanksgiving tradition since 1934, and hasn’t exactly done a great job of sending the home fans away happy.

The Lions are 38-46-2 all-time on Thanksgiving, and in recent years, have had NFL fans wondering if they should have the game taken away from them.

Between 2004 and 2023, the Lions have had the two longest Thanksgiving Day losing streaks of all time. They dropped nine in a row from 2004-12 and seven in a row from 2017-23.

This season, the Lions host the Bears on Thanksgiving, whom they defeated in 2024 to end that second streak.

The Dallas Cowboys are the other annual Thanksgiving host, starting in 1966, and have had better luck. The Cowboys are 35-22-1 on Thanksgiving and average nearly 4 more points per game than their opponents.

Dallas is currently on a four-game win streak on Thanksgiving, its third of at least that length. It will look to extend that to five this year against the Eagles. The Cowboys’ longest Thanksgiving win streak came when they won six in a row from 1980-85.

The longest Thanksgiving losing streak for Dallas was four, coming from 1986-89 ahead of their early 1990s golden era.

5. The “Curse of the Visiting Underdog”

While the Cowboys have been stronger on Thanksgiving, they were also victims of two of the biggest Turkey Day upsets.

In 2019, the Bills defeated the Cowboys 26-15 despite being a 7-point underdog. Two years later, the Raiders found themselves listed as a touchdown underdog as well, but pulled off a 36-33 victory in Dallas.

The Lions have only lost once on Thanksgiving as a favorite of a touchdown or more, but that might just be because they spent several years never being favored by a touchdown or more.

That one loss did feel like there was a Thanksgiving curse, however. In 2023, they were amid a franchise resurgence and favored by 8.5 points against the Packers. They lost that game 29-22, extending that second losing streak to seven games.

Two other teams have lost as big home favorites on Thanksgiving, as the NFL has expanded the day.

The Baltimore Ravens lost 32-14 to the Bengals in 2025 as 8-point favorites, while the Packers lost 17-13 to the Bears in 2015 as 7.5-point favorites.

When NFL odds are available for this year’s games, it’s doubtful the Bears (at Lions), Eagles (at Cowboys), and Chiefs (at Bills) will find themselves as massive road underdogs. If they do, though, defying NFL public betting trends and taking the underdog could prove lucrative.

This story was produced by SBD using Sportradar data and reviewed and distributed by Stacker.