What will 2026 look like for Lakes Region real estate?

Now that 2025 has come and gone, I want to take a look at what we might see in 2026 moving forward. But let’s take a quick look at how the real estate market ended in 2025. 

In New Hampshire, the median price of a single-family home hit a record of $535,000, representing a 3.9% increase over 2024. Yes, prices have continued to climb, however, the pace of growth has slowed significantly. In 2025, there was the smallest increase in the state’s median price in the last decade. There were 12,529 closings of single-family homes, a 4.5% increase over 2024. 

If you look at the past decade, the median sales price increased an average of 8.5% per year, compared to 2025’s increase of 3.9%. The highest median sales price was in Rockingham County, a whopping $670,000, with 2,619 sales. The lowest was Coos County, with a median sales price of $252,000, with 417 sales. 

All 10 counties in New Hampshire experienced more home sales in 2025, except Sullivan County. Carroll County, as part of our Lakes Region, experienced the biggest increase in percentage rise at 11.8%, with 940 sales. In Belknap County, in the heart of the Lakes Region, the median sales price for single-family homes was $520,000, with 785 sales. For condominiums in Belknap County, the median sales price was $441,000 with 257 sales. 

So overall, New Hampshire performed well compared to the national median sales price of $409,200 vs New Hampshire’s at $535,000. NH properties sold last year at 99.9% of the listing price, with an average of only 30 days on the market. The bad news is the affordability factor ended the year at 59, which is not good. New Hampshire has a major affordability issue. 

Looking forward to 2026 

As of Jan. 15, the average national internet rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.13% on Bankrate.com. The Trump administration directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities that caused the rates to drop. That’s the lowest level since April 2022. The 15-year average rate also dropped to 5.51%. 

Additionally, the next Federal Reserve meeting to set interest rates is Jan. 27-28. Also, there is speculation that a new Federal Reserve chair will be nominated in early 2026, leading to speculation about the possibility of lower interest rate cuts for 2026. This could be favorable to move the real estate market forward in the new year. Mortgage rate forecasts range from 5.7% to as high as 6.4%. The rates will be elevated compared to pandemic lows but will decrease slightly as the year progresses. 

While buyers are hoping for prices to fall, I can see a moderation in price increases. The massive jumps in pricing in recent years were unsustainable. I feel more inventory will appear in the spring, and days on the market will gradually increase. In New Hampshire, we have close to a two-month supply of inventory compared to a 4.3-month supply of homes nationally. We are still well short of inventory to meet demand; however, it is slowly starting to even out. Zillow projects home values to rise approximately 1.2% and Redfin expects 1%.

Homeowners who are holding onto low mortgage rates (2.5-4.5%) will be debating whether to start home renovations or additions, or consider “trading up” or even downsizing for semi-retired couples. The market could open up slightly in this category. Also, increased condominium fees, special assessments, association dues, insurance increases, real estate tax increases, and high maintenance costs can make properties feel financially challenging, where owners might consider selling.

We will see a continued influx of second home and vacation-home buyers entering the Lakes Region from Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, southern New Hampshire, Florida, and even states out west have contributed likewise. There are also a good number of investors looking for rental properties and Airbnbs.

Waterfront values have been holding up well in 2025. Lake Winnipesaukee’s median sales price was $2.75 million, with 85 sales, an increase over the previous year. The smaller lakes have also performed well. 

Squam Lake excelled with five sales and a median sales price of $5.9 million. I am, however, seeing some major price reductions on the lakes where the pricing has become elevated and days on the market are getting longer. However, there is still limited inventory, which has kept price points at all-time highs. 

There’s a good amount of condominium homes for sale in the Lakes Region. A diversified selection of resale inventory is available. However, the amount of newly constructed condominium communities and proposed new developments mimics what we saw in the early 1980s. The majority of activity is confined to Laconia. There are approximately 950 units that have been approved or are in the planning stages in Laconia, or are presently under construction. 

That does not include the proposed Laconia Village Master Plan at the former Laconia State School property with 2,000 housing units proposed, plus commercial, retail, hotel, and civic amenities planned for the 217-acre parcel. Over the past seven years, Laconia has averaged a total of 169 condominium unit sales per year, the majority of which were resales. The question is, how long will it take to absorb a potential of 2,950 units coming on the market? 

Personally, I experienced what happened at the end of the 1980s boom, and it was not pretty. Is Laconia setting itself up in terms of overbuilding high-density developments? Only time will tell. 

Looking forward, we live in a beautiful region and there will always be strong demand for Lakes Region real estate. 2026 will be an interesting year. 

There are many difficult issues around the world that our country is dealing with, never mind within our own country; we have an affordability issue here in New Hampshire, that is a top priority. Any of these issues could potentially affect our real market and stock market. However, strong demand from out-of-state buyers will keep the market pulse moving forward in the new year.  

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This article was written by Frank Roche, president of Roche Realty Group with offices in Meredith, and can be reached at 603-279-7046. Visit

rocherealty.com to learn more about the Lakes Region and its real estate market.