The great land squeeze: What recent stats reveal about the Lakes Region's future

If readers have tried to buy a piece of land in the Lakes Region recently, they likely noticed two things: there is significantly less to choose from, and what is available is moving at lightning speed.

Newly released sales data covering Moultonborough, Tuftonboro, Wolfeboro, Alton, Gilford, Laconia, Meredith, and Center Harbor confirms exactly what many have felt on the ground. We are witnessing a fundamental shift in the local market — a transition from the post-pandemic boom to a new era of "high-velocity scarcity."

Comparing the numbers from 2024 to 2025 reveals a stark trend that helps predict where we are headed in 2026.

The 'missing' inventory

The most eye-opening statistic is the sheer drop in volume. In 2024, our region saw 141 land transactions. In 2025, that number plummeted to 91 — a decrease of roughly 35%.

Historically, a drop in sales volume often signals a cooling market where buyers have pulled back. However, the data suggests the opposite is true here. Demand hasn't disappeared; the supply has.

In 2024, the largest tract of land sold was a massive 151 acres. In 2025, the largest sold was just 68.67 acres. The big, legacy parcels of land are vanishing.

We are running out of easy inventory, and what remains is being held tightly by long-term owners.

Paying more for less

Despite high interest rates and elevated construction costs, the "floor" of the market is rising.

● 2024 Median Sale Price: $150,000

● 2025 Median Sale Price: $175,000

That is a 16.6% increase in the median price in just one year. While the ultra-luxury ceiling came down slightly (the highest sale dropped from $2.85 million in 2024 to $2.3 million in 2025), the middle of the market is becoming more expensive. Buyers are paying significantly more for smaller parcels, proving that the dream of owning a slice of New Hampshire is still driving fierce competition.

The inventory puzzle

While these numbers indicate a robust real estate market, they also present a structural challenge that everyone must address if we want to ensure the long-term vitality of our towns.

The challenge of the "starter home" isn't malice; it’s math. With the median price of a raw lot now hovering around $175,000, the economics of building a modest, "workforce" home have become incredibly difficult.

When the land alone costs nearly $200,000 — before site work, septic installation, well, or pouring a foundation — builders are naturally incentivized to construct larger, higher-end homes to justify the initial investment. A developer simply cannot build a $350,000 home for a young family or a local teacher if the dirt under the house accounts for a large portion of the overall budget.

This economic pressure is driving many developers to pivot toward condominiums. For a builder, the math is simple: if a single lot costs $175,000, building one single-family home on it pushes the final price toward luxury territory. But if they can place four condo units on that same land, the land cost drops to roughly $44,000 per door, making the project viable and the final price more attainable.

There is real demand for this product, too. We have a wave of aging residents looking to downsize and second-home buyers seeking "lock-and-leave" convenience. Yet, the 2025 data reveals a roadblock for this strategy: the disappearance of large tracts. With the largest sold parcel shrinking from 151 acres in 2024 to just 68 acres in 2025, the opportunities for traditional, large-scale condo associations are vanishing. Developers are eager to build the density the market needs, but they are running out of canvas to paint on.

If you drive around Laconia, you will see a wave of new condominium development underway, many of which have high density. It seems like we are entering an overbuilding phase of condos in Laconia vs. single-family homes, which the market is also demanding.

This isn't a signal to stop development; it's a signal to get creative.

To bridge the gap between high land costs and the need for diverse housing, we may need to look closer at "smart density." This means revisiting zoning to allow for "pocket neighborhoods" or smaller condo clusters on the sub-10-acre lots that are still available.

This will help spur development while leaving the larger tracts intact for conservation.

The outlook for 2026

So, what does this mean for the year ahead?

If the current trend lines hold, 2026 will likely be defined by the "scarcity squeeze." We can expect transaction volume to remain low — likely fewer than 100 land sales across these eight towns — simply because the inventory isn't there. Consequently, the median price is poised to push higher, potentially testing the $190,000-$200,000+ range.

For sellers, this is excellent news, provided your land is "build-ready." With construction costs high, buyers are wary of raw land that requires expensive site work. A lot with a septic design, or a cleared driveway, or permits, will command a premium.

For buyers, the strategy is simple: preparation. In 2024, the median time to sell a piece of land was 30 days. In 2025, that dropped to just 20 days. When a buildable lot hits the market, it is often under contract in less than three weeks. The days of "thinking it over" for a month are effectively overdue to a lack of inventory, sadly.

This trend does have its limits. There are currently 63 residential lots for sale across the eight towns mentioned above (excluding commercial and waterfront). The median days on market is 133 days. While inventory looks plentiful, some lots have lingered — likely due to pricing, site challenges, or other factors making the lot less desirable.

Innovation is the new inventory

As we move deeper into 2026, the numbers tell us that the "easy" land is gone. The era of abundant, affordable acreage in the Lakes Region has passed, replaced by a market defined by speed, scarcity, and a higher price of entry.

For buyers and sellers, this new reality requires agility. But for our communities, it requires vision.

We cannot solve the inventory crisis simply by waiting for more land to appear — we must change how we use the land we have. The recent legislative shifts in New Hampshire, favoring Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs) and "gentle density," offer a glimpse of the solution. Additionally, the towns and cities should explore with developers the opportunities for mobile home/modular development in new parks where the lots are owned by the homeowner and not controlled by the community as a rental park.

The market of 2026 is robust, but it is demanding, poised to reward those who are prepared to move fast.

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This article was written by Randy Miller, a sales associate and Realtor at Roche Realty Group located in Meredith, and can be reached at 603-530-1561. Data was compiled from PrimeMLS and is subject to change. Visit rocherealty.com to learn more about the Lakes Region and its real estate market.