Gary Franks: Hey, can I borrow $1.8 trillion?

OK, here is a test. Go to your favorite bank. Tell your banker you spent $68,000 last year and your salary or income was $49,000. And you are there to ask for a loan.

Oh, you tell the banker that last year you borrowed over $18,000 to pay for the service on your $3.6 million debt. Now you ask the banker for more money so you can continue to service your debt and for other expenses. Let me know how it works for you.

But if you were the United States of America asking world bankers you would get the loan, again and again. We are the classic too big to fail case. So, they will, somebody will make the deal and give us more money.

However, we are going to have to pay a higher interest rate as we have now become a greater risk. Math, well, it just does not work. It has not worked for 25 years. Former President Bill Clinton not only managed to balance the budget — that was the last time it happened — he also managed to net a $70 billion surplus.

Conversely, in 2023 our credit rating was downgraded due to our financial risk.

We take in $4.9 trillion and spend $6.8 trillion while borrowing $1.8 trillion. It cannot continue. We must borrow money from other countries in the E.U. as well as Japan, Canada, and yes, China. We have never defaulted. Congress will continue to raise the debt ceiling as the consequences for not doing so are unimaginable.

As reported in Fortune Magazine, Ray Dalio, a prominent billionaire hedge fund manager, warns that the U.S. faces an imminent debt crisis as its debt-to-GDP ratio climbs past 122%, with experts worried foreign buyers will pull back or raise interest payments, making borrowing unsustainable. (This is based on a ratio — the amount Uncle Sam owes in comparison to the value of its output and hence how capable it is in repaying debt).

Then comes newly elected President Donald Trump on his numerous missions. Is he biting off more than he can chew? Trump is acting like he has four months in office not four years.

I never believed that one should change the course of the ship by picking it up right out of the water and spinning it in a completely new direction. I believed that you should leave the ship in the water while slowly turning it around. There is a difference.

The strength of America’s traditional guardrails is in question. However, there are many ways the people of America can speak to their leaders. These guardrails have allowed America to birth the strongest democracy in the world.

There are the usual ways often talked about — elections. But we all know that elections come and go. We will not have another election for the House or Senate for nearly two years and we will not have another presidential election for nearly four years. Much damage can be done in the interim.

But that does not mean the people are shut out from creating real change.

We have the loyal opposition — in this case the Democrat Party. They can be so inept that they only make moves that often throw gasoline on the fire. They are too predictable and emotional. If Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and the Democrats had allowed the government to close, they would have replaced the Trump administration as the catalyst for a recession.

Then you have the courts. They move slowly and have various layers you need to go through before you have a final definitive decision. Weeks, months, and years could go by. Trump learned well how to deal with the courts, and he used them to his advantage during his four years out of office. Delays can be a tool and a weapon.

Then you have the media. They were “joined at the hip” with the Democrats and as the Democrats fell in the national elections so did the mainstream media. Two of the three major networks are replacing their flagship evening news anchors, network/cable station heads have rolled, and even syndicated columnists have suffered setbacks.

So, what is left to protect the nation from any force that would overplay its hand. We have the people.

The people speak loud and clear when it comes to the “Benjamins.” Do something to affect people’s money and those who do so will pay a price. The unfortunate part of paying the price is that there can be collateral damage.

There are other factors that determine the acceptance or rejection of radical change. The people display their concern in multiple ways:

1. Investors radically change their investments, which causes a steep decline in the market per a major selloff.

2. Consumer confidence — if the people are worried, they will not spend their money out of fear of needing it to survive in the future.

3. Layoffs — the government is leading the charge here. This causes folks to be nervous, which triggers a lack in consumer confidence. (When Clinton had a budget surplus, 67% of Americans were in the workforce; today it is 62%).

4. Inflation due to tariff wars — the jury is still out on this one. Will we see higher prices for consumers and/or more tax revenue for the government? However, doubt is concerning and erodes consumer confidence.

If we continue on our current trajectory, all the above spells "recession". And having a recession would cause even our most “friendly” lenders/nations to increase their concern. It’s like asking for a bank loan without a job.

All three branches of government, the Federal Reserve, and the media must work together to prevent a catastrophe.

Yes, many of our acts are self-inflicted. Acts that the world cannot comprehend, nor could most Americans.

Could we eventually be in a position to either default on our loans to other nations or renege on our obligations to the American people — a classic being between a “rock and hard place” situation. Neither can be allowed to happen.

But one day the bank will be ... closed.

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Gary Franks served three terms as a congressman from Connecticut's 5th District. He was the first Black conservative elected to Congress and first Black Republican elected to the House in nearly 60 years. Host: Podcast "We Speak Frankly", garyfranksphilanthropy.org.