Ayotte survives Democratic surge to defeat Warmington in race for NH governor

Gov. Kelly Ayotte won a second term as New Hampshire governor Tuesday, defying a national midterm backlash against Republicans across the country and New Hampshire. 

But the New Hampshire the governor will lead for the next two years will be different from the one she won in 2024. Results early Wednesday morning indicated that Democrats would likely gain control of the state House, Senate and Executive Council, creating high barriers to future Republican priorities.

Ayotte positioned herself as a moderate leader and waged a blistering campaign against her opponent’s past ties to the opioid industry.

The governor did not deliver remarks after the Associated Press projected the victory just before 1 a.m. Wednesday morning. But New Hampshire Republican Party Chairman Scott Maltzie said in a statement, “She ran a fantastic campaign and has consistently demonstrated that she understands what Granite Staters need.”

The victory continues a New Hampshire tradition of a moderate Republican holding onto the corner office in the era of President Donald Trump, even when Democrats in other races in the state won.

But it also came after an unusually personal campaign by the governor, fueled by fears that a national Democratic “blue wave” could sweep up Ayotte before she could solidify her tenure as a new governor. 

In her first reelection campaign, Ayotte ran on a message of affordability, touting laws she championed and signed to overhaul local zoning and encourage more housing construction, as well as her opposition to a statewide sales or income tax.

Warmington also centered her campaign on affordability, but attempted to castigate Ayotte and tie her to high costs in New Hampshire. Specifically, the Democrat pointed to increasing housing costs in the state, high prescription drug prices, spikes in New Hampshire electric rates and rising property taxes. 

Warmington said those crises were directly caused by a lack of state investment by Ayotte and New Hampshire Republican lawmakers, and said as governor, she would prioritize that spending. Warmington also criticized state funding of public schools in Republican budgets, and stood against the education freedom account program, which allows parents to use state education funding toward private schools or homeschools. 

To drive home that argument, Warmington devoted her first television ad to attacking Ayotte’s statement that she had “kept New Hampshire moving in the right direction.” 

“What planet is she on?” Warmington responded in the ad.

It was a critique that might have landed in a different race. As gas prices and inflation have both climbed, Democrats across the country have capitalized on affordability concerns to gain an edge over Republicans. 

But week after week, Warmington’s affordability argument failed to overcome a simple, memorable and devastating label levied by Ayotte and other New Hampshire Republicans: “Cinde Warmington: Opioid Lobbyist.” 

The phrase, splashed on billboards and road signs for months, sought to draw attention to Warmington’s past as a lobbyist for Purdue Pharma, the maker of OxyContin, in 2001 and 2002, and work as a lawyer representing the state pain care clinic PainCare. The wide prescribing of OxyContin and its representation by Purdue Pharma that it was not addictive helped fuel an opioid addiction crisis that crashed over New Hampshire for decades.

Warmington has consistently said she did not know Purdue Pharma was misleading patients and doctors at the time she worked for them, and she has said she regretted her work. In October, she released a television ad labeled “Had Enough,” in which she briefly expressed regret for her past roles but then argued Ayotte was using that past to deflect from her own leadership.

But Republicans hammered the point home. In a June ad, Ayotte used an attack ad originally run by Democrat Joyce Craig in her primary campaign, which also criticized Warmington’s opioid lobbying past.

In the candidates’ final debate before WMUR Oct. 29, Ayotte read aloud Warmington’s statements from 2002 calling Oxycontin a “miracle drug” with “very few side effects.” The association proved difficult for the Democrat to dislodge.

Both candidates attempted positive messaging, too. Warmington vowed support for public schools, while Ayotte vowed further reforms to decrease the cost of housing.

In brief remarks to a room of supporters in Salem Tuesday night around 11:30, before the race was called, Ayotte thanked her family members, campaign volunteers and staff, and husband. She did not mention the apparent Democratic legislative majorities.

“It has been a privilege to serve the people of New Hampshire over the last two years,” she said.