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Brave new world awaits if U.S. currency loses reserve status

To The Daily Sun,

The U.S dollar's dominance as a world reserve currency is dependent on the fact that it is the world's petrocurrency, which means most oil purchases globally are denominated in dollars. Most oil-producing nations will not sell their oil unless dollars are used. The dollar has benefited from this advantage because of the relationship between the governments of the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia produces the largest share of the world's oil. Their market share has been declining recently due to falling global demand; more specifically, falling U.S. demand. This has led to vicious competition from other oil producing nations, including Russia and Iran.

Falling U.S. demand by itself has led OPEC nations to question the continued use of the dollar as the petrocurrency. In November 2015, the Saudi government hinted at the possibility they might de-peg from the U.S. currency, an act which would end the dollar's petrodollar status.

The dilemma facing the Saudis was increasingly low and unstable oil prices to which the U.S. petrodollar adds a further level of uncertainty. Some analysts argue Saudi Arabia may be forced to choose to either cut production to increase prices; or to end the dollar peg and stabilize prices by switching to a basket of currencies instead.

After the April Doha meeting there is little chance that Saudi Arabia will commit to substantial cuts in oil production. The Saudis have just announced that they may expand oil fields in order to increase production to even greater historical levels. So, oil prices are going to remain low... for now. They may even fall some if a battle for market share between Iran, Russia and Saudi Arabia goes as some predict. This suggests that the Saudis will end the peg to the dollar soon; meaning, best guess, within a couple of years.

Some think an oil price panic could lead to conflict between Saudi Arabia and the U.S., disrupting the petrodollar status. That may precipitate the decline in dominance of the U.S. dollar's world reserve status, which. in turn, means the end of dollar dominance. That may lead to the rise of the SDR system under the IMF as a prelude to introduction of a global currency with global economic governance to follow.

Something that may expedite the situation is release of documents linking the Saudi government directly to the 9/11 hijackers. Despite our president's visit to the Saudis, the White House is still said to be poised to release these documents to the public. The Saudis have responded angrily. They have threatened to dump their $750 billion in U.S. treasury holdings if the documents see the light of day.

That act would end the Saudi peg to the dollar and dollar's petrodollar status which would then speed the end of the dollar's dominance as a world reserve currency which will have a large and negative impact on our economy. The dollars we have been pumping into the money supply would return home relatively quickly.

We then may have immense global economic change triggered by these 28-pages in a report more than a decade old. The economic reset has been years in the making. Our leaders and our friends have produced this plausible scenario to end the American economy as we know it. If it comes to pass it would usher in a brave new world.

Marc Abear

Meredith

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Ghosts of the Gardens Theater are still there; I can feel them

To The Daily Sun,

There are ghosts all around us. Some of them are spirits of those who have departed. Some are memories of how we used to be. Although they are intangible, we attach them, with fervor, to tangible objects, buildings, places and when those objects are lost, buildings torn down, we mourn the loss of the past all over again.

The theater is the host to many ghosts. The theater is a place where reality meets fantasy, where people come to escape from reality. They can go there and, in makeup and costume, transform into another person. They can go there just to watch the transformation and to transport to another plane. In the coziness of community theater the creation of these spirits is even more profound. Neighbors, friends, family, classmates and co-workers make up not only the cast and the orchestra, but the audience as well. Yes, the theater is replete with ghosts.

I'm reminded of these ghosts today as I saw an article regarding the sale of the Gardens Theater in Laconia. The Gardens Theater was home to the Streetcar Company in the late 1960s and 1970s. It was a magnificent building then and still is today. I had the pleasure of touring through the building back in 2011 when it was on the market for $750,000. Now the price has decreased to $250,000. Oh lottery, where art thou?

The theater seats were gone, but the hardwood floor was still in wonderful shape. I stood in the middle and looked around. I looked up to the balcony where I sat though many rehearsals, watching my dad glide across the stage as Zoltan Karpathy or romance a teenage Susan Newell as El Gallo. I closed my eyes and opened them and once again I was at the Ascot Races watching in horror as Eliza dropped her delicate demeanor and screamed at her horse. There was a quartet. A barbershop quartet. Will Reed was the tenor, my dad was the baritone, I think Mr. Buswell sang bass.

Fritz was a doorman. Noel was an orphan. There wouldn't have been any lights without John. Dina was the tiniest little blond girl, injecting her angelic voice into a chorus of hooligans. There were people who designed and sold tickets. Parents and friends who baked. Cast parties with pizza and soda (and I have a feeling there was a bit of beer involved with the folks of age).
Jenny and I sat with a notebook and wrote numbers from 1 to well over 10,000. I think we were planning on setting a world record. I think we were bored one day when our dads were rehearsing.

Being there was like falling asleep in the backseat of your parent's car. You knew you were safe and you knew you belonged there.

The ghosts are still there. I can walk by the building and feel them. Some of them are gone from this world and some of them are just gone from my world. But when I stand there, I can feel them. I can feel them telling me I still belong and somehow, I feel comfort.

So, today, as I read The Daily Sun and saw the sale notice, I felt the ghosts again. I felt them with melancholy and a bit of longing, but mostly with the grateful knowledge that they will forever be a part of me. Yes, there are ghosts in the Gardens and I am one of them.

Hillary Seeger
Meredith

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