Sanborn — Winni waterfront sales report August 2014

There were 17 sales on Lake Winnipesaukee in August 2014 at an average price of $1,144,029 and a median price of $899,000. There were seven sales over the magic million dollar mark. That's pretty good but not as good as last August when there were 23 transactions at an average sales price of $732,396. For the first eight months of the year there have been 80 sales on Winnipesaukee with a total sales volume of $85.91 million and an average sales price of $1.074 million compared to 85 sales for the same period in 2013 where the total sales volume was $74.86 million and the average price came in at $800,752. So in a nutshell, this year the higher priced homes are selling a little better.

The biggest sale on Winni in August was at 8 Foxwood Way in Tuftonboro. This sale was really about the lot which was 98.6 acres with 822 feet of frontage! However, one must not overlook the two 1935 vintage lodges. One has four bedrooms, a great room with cathedral ceilings, the requisite floor to ceiling fire place, wood paneling, and a sun room looking out at the lake. The other lodge sits back in the trees and has a separate bunkhouse with sunken living room for the rowdy guests. There is an over the water boat house, a U-shaped crib dock, and a three car garage for all the motorized equipment you might have. This property was represented by Randy Parker of Maxfield Real Estate back in May of 2013 at $4.5 million and sold for $3.7 million after 438 days on the market.

The mid priced sale was at 5 Deepwater Point in Moultonborough. This 3,015 square foot, three bedroom, three bath, contemporary was built in 1998 and was meticulously maintained and very well appointed. This is one of those properties that has a true lake home feel when you walk in. It features a beautiful great room with a stone wood burning fireplace, wood floors, and cathedral ceiling, country kitchen with cherry cabinetry, granite counter tops, and stainless appliances, first floor master, and family room in the walk out lower level. The home sits in a .69 acre lot with lush landscaping, mature perennial gardens, and stone walkways. There is 93' of sandy frontage with a large deep water dock that provides ample room for all the toys. This home was first listed in May of 2013 for $975,000, then re-listed with Ricker Miller of BHHS Verani in Moultonborough in May of 2014 for $899,900, and sold for full price in 36 days. This property is currently assessed for $600,300.

The lowest price sale for the month is a really cute 1985 vintage, 979 square foot, two bedroom, one and a half bath camp at 992 Rattlesnake Island in Alton. The property even has an additional bunkhouse where Uncle Zeke can stay when he shows up unexpectedly. This cottage sits on a .78 acre lot with 100' of frontage with a breakwater and dock. There's a waterside deck that provides a great sitting area to take in the 180 degree views. This property was first listed in Sept 2013 for $309,000, re-listed this year with Nancy DePorter of Maxfield Real Estate for $309,000 and sold for $305,000. It is currently assessed at $307,500. Uncle Zeke must be real happy.

There was only one sale on Winnisquam in August and that was in Tilton at 32 Hill Road. This 1920s vintage lake home feels like stepping back in time but it has been tastefully remodeled over the years. It has three bedrooms, two baths, a charming living room with stone fireplace, a nice country kitchen with large pantry, and an old fashioned front porch (or is it back porch?) looking out at the lake. While there is only 20' of frontage on this .39 acre lot it provides access to a great dock and the calm waters of a no wake zone. This home was on and off the market since 2007 when it was first was listed for $499,000. It was listed this spring by Michelle Heally of BHHS Verani out of Londondery for $369,900 and sold for $375,000 after 11 days on the market. It is currently assessed for $238,900.

Please feel free to visit to learn more about the Lakes Region real estate market and comment on this article and others. Data was compiled using the Northern New England Real Estate MLS System as of 9/09/14. Roy Sanborn is a realtor at Four Seasons Sotheby's International Realty and can be reached at 603-677-7012

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Susan Estrich - The measles are back

No, it's not a rock group. You're lucky if you can't remember. It's a disease that was gone, and now it's back. So, by the way, is whooping cough, another dreaded childhood disease that had been effectively wiped out.

Every child is supposed to be immunized before they start kindergarten. Children with medical issues, such as a weakened immune system, are entitled to medical exemptions. These children, along with family members who cannot be vaccinated, depend on the rest of the community to protect them. According to accepted public health standards, "herd immunity" requires that 92 percent of the students in the classroom be vaccinated. By vaccinating our own children, we protect them — and those children who cannot be vaccinated and might face the worst outcomes if they were to fall sick.

While all states require certain vaccinations, parents who claim that vaccinations are against their "personal beliefs" are entitled to exemptions. The number of parents seeking such exemptions has doubled in the past seven years, and, according to an analysis by the Los Angeles Times, the rates — and dangers — are actually greatest in private schools and many of the wealthiest public school districts.

In the Santa Monica-Malibu (Calif.) Unified School District, for example, the exemption rate is nearly 15 percent. In the Montecito district in Santa Barbara, more than 27 percent of the parents are claiming it is against their personal beliefs to vaccinate. Among private schools in California, nearly 25 percent of the kindergartens are reporting vaccination rates that put them below the 92 percent rate. In some cases, literally half of the students aren't getting vaccinated. Ten percent of the public school kindergartens surveyed reported that "herd immunity" no longer protects their students.

Parents who don't vaccinate their otherwise healthy children claim that they are protecting their children's health. I have yet to find a reputable doctor or public health expert who agrees. Measles and pertussis are potentially serious illnesses, even for healthy children. And they can be deadly for children and family members who cannot be vaccinated, already have compromised immune systems or are being treated for cancers — in short, for people who depend on the community to keep them safe.
Not vaccinating your child is both dangerous and selfish.

This is not a religious issue, at least not for the overwhelming majority of California residents who opt out of vaccination. The most dangerous schools in the state are schools populated by parents who think they know better than public health officials and, in making that mistake, are exposing not only their own children, but also their most vulnerable classmates and family members, as well as teachers and staff, to potentially deadly threats.

A few years ago, it was very "fashionable" to believe that vaccinations caused autism. I say "fashionable" because there was never one ounce of scientific proof establishing any such connection, and yet you could turn on your television and see the topic being debated as if it were one about which reasonable authorities could disagree. Reasonable authorities could not disagree. The so-called studies suggesting a link to autism were thoroughly and totally discredited. And yet the trend continues.

The number of measles cases in America reached a 20-year high last year. A preventable disease is back. California is facing a whooping cough epidemic this year.

Of course, parents should be able to raise their children as they please. I'm not one who thinks we need the state to tell us what our kids can eat for lunch or what size sodas they can buy. But vaccinations are another matter. Personal choice should not extend to exposing children to unacceptable and unnecessary risks — particularly when those being exposed are the most vulnerable among us, who have no choice.

(Susan Estrich is a professor of Law and Political Science at the University of Southern California Law Center. A best-selling author, lawyer and politician, as well as a teacher, she first gained national prominence as national campaign manager for Dukakis for President in 1988.)

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Pat Buchanan - Bluster & bluff in the Baltic

"I say to the people of Estonia and the people of the Baltics, today we are bound by our treaty alliance. ... Article 5 is crystal clear: An attack on one is an attack on all. So if ... you ever ask again, 'who'll come to help,' you'll know the answer — the NATO alliance, including the armed forces of the United States of America."

That was Barack Obama in Tallinn, Estonia, last week, reissuing a U.S. war guarantee to the tiniest of the Baltic republics — which his Cold War predecessors would have regarded as certifiable madness.

From 1945 to 1989, no president would have dreamed of issuing a blank check for war in Eastern Europe. Our red line was in the heart of Germany. It said to Moscow: Cross the Elbe, and we fight. That red line was made credible by hundreds of thousands of U.S. troops permanently stationed in West Germany.

Yet Truman did not use force to break the Berlin Blockade. Ike did not use force to save the Hungarian rebels. JFK fulminated, and observed, when the Wall went up. When Leonid Brezhnev sent Warsaw Pact armies into Czechoslovakia, LBJ did nothing.

Why did these presidents not act? None believed there was any vital U.S. interest in Eastern Europe worth a war with Russia. And, truth be told, there was no vital interest there then, and there is no vital interest there now. If we would not risk war with a nuclear-armed Russia over Hungary or Czechoslovakia half a century ago, why would we risk it now over Estonia? Cold War presidents routinely issued captive nations resolutions, declaring our belief in the right of the peoples behind the Iron Curtain to be free. But no president regarded their liberation worthy of war.

What has changed? When did the independence of the Baltic republics, miraculous and welcome as it is, become so critical to us that if Russia intrudes into Estonia, we will treat it as an attack on our homeland?

In 1994, George Kennan called the expansion of NATO into the old Soviet bloc "a strategic blunder of potentially epic proportions." Yet we not only brought into NATO all the Warsaw Pact nations, George W. Bush brought in the Baltic republics.

To see the folly of what we have done, consider Ukraine, which has been involved in a military and political collision with Russia ever since we colluded in the overthrow of its pro-Russian regime. As neocons cheered the ouster of the corrupt and incompetent, but democratically elected, Viktor Yanukovych, Vladimir Putin moved to secure and annex Crimea, and pro-Russian separatists sought to break away from Kiev and achieve independence or reunification with Russia.

A question arises: Why do not the pro-Russian separatists of Donetsk and Luhansk have the same right to secede from Ukraine, as Ukraine had to secede from the Soviet Union? And why is this quarrel any of America's business? Was it the business of Czar Alexander II when the 11 Southern states seceded from the Union and, then, West Virginia seceded from Virginia?

Under the new government of Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine sent its forces to the southeast to crush the separatists. They failed. Rising casualties and a separatist drive on the city of Mariupol have apparently persuaded Kiev to seek a ceasefire and peace.
Needless to say, those who celebrated the overthrow of the pro-Russian regime in Kiev are now apoplectic at Kiev's apparent defeat. Yet, on Sept. 5, the New York Times wrote, "The Americans have no illusion that Ukraine could ever prevail in a war with Russia."

That is realism. But if Ukraine's cause is militarily hopeless, what would be Estonia's chances in a clash with Moscow? Estonia has three percent of Ukraine's population and is less than one-tenth its size. If Moscow decided to take Estonia, it could do so in 48 hours.

And should Putin engage in so rash an act, what would NATO do? Would 28 NATO nations declare war and send troops? Would the United States declare war on Russia and conduct air strikes on Russian forces inside and outside Estonia? Would we send aircraft carriers into the Baltic Sea? Would we start a war with Russia that could lead to early use of tactical atomic weapons, devastating Estonia and causing massive deaths?

How would NATO save Estonia without destroying Estonia?

To eliminate second thoughts about our war guarantee to Estonia, some in Washington are calling for permanent U.S. bases and the stationing of U.S. troops in the Baltic states, so that any Russian incursion would lead to U.S. causalities and a definite clash with Russia.

Presumably this threat would deter Russia in perpetuity. But if it doesn't deter Putin, or if a future Russian ruler regards it as a bluff and chastises Estonia, what do we do then? Put the B-2s on alert and go to DEFCON-2, as we did in the Cuban missile crisis?

(Syndicated columnist Pat Buchanan has been a senior advisor to three presidents, twice a candidate for the Republican presidential nomination and the presidential nominee of the Reform Party in 2000. He won the New Hampshire Republican Primary in 1996.)

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Froma Harrop - Casinos just aren't the answer

The video for the Bruce Springsteen song "Atlantic City" opens with a scene of the grand Marlborough-Blenheim Hotel imploding into a pile of dust. That was almost 40 years ago. The Traymore Hotel and other grand hotels were leveled in much the same spectacular fashion.

In their place rose glass boxes and concrete hulks to house new casinos. The Atlantic City dream was to fill New Jersey state coffers with gambling gold.

At the time, Nevada held a monopoly on casinos. The plan was to turn Atlantic City into a Las Vegas East drawing rollers — high and low — preferably from other tax jurisdictions. But that dream went bad all around.

At least four Atlantic City casinos are closing this year, in part because of intense competition from newer gaming establishments in nearby Pennsylvania and elsewhere. Another problem for casinos nationally is the tough economy for their core market — blue-collar and middle-income workers.

Casino revenues in New Jersey are down 44 percent from their 2006 high, but the business is rough everywhere. The huge Harrah's in Tunica, Mississippi, has also shut its doors.

The casino business is now in the advanced "cannibalizing" stage as competitors eat what's left of each other's lunch. By "competitors," we mean both the casinos and the states relying on their revenues.

Atlantic City's special tragedy is what was traded for the casino fantasy. Nowadays cities run entire visitor campaigns around the sort of fabulous old architecture Atlantic City so easily discarded. Imagine what today's entrepreneurs could have done with a mythical beach resort smack in between New York and Washington!

Casino lust persists, but the argument has changed. Casinos are rarely portrayed as a font of tax revenues from out-of-state pockets. In most of the country, casino customers are increasingly locals who would have spent their spare dollars at local restaurants, theaters and other entertainment venues.

The new sales pitch for casinos rings more of desperation: If the state's working class is going to be milked by gaming conglomerates and the states that tax them, better that the milking take place at home than in a neighboring state.

Some states have valiantly managed to hold the line. Nebraska, for example, does not allow full-fledged casinos even though Iowa has placed three in Council Bluffs, right across the Missouri River from Omaha. (Iowa's gambling tax revenues are also falling.)
Massachusetts seems to be succumbing and is now involved in an odd negotiation with Mohegan Sun, an Indian casino operator applying to build an outlet near Boston. Mohegan Sun already has a big-league casino in eastern Connecticut, not far from the state border. Massachusetts wants a promise that it will not entice the state's high-stakes gamblers to its flagship in Connecticut (where casino taxes are lower). Mohegan Sun has yet to agree.

The statesmen running New Jersey now figure: If casinos aren't making it in South Jersey, perhaps the solution is casinos in North Jersey. How about putting them "somewhere in the swamps of Jersey" — a Springsteen reference to the Meadowlands?

The Meadowlands sit a mere 9 miles west of Manhattan, a casino-free zone. New York state, however, seems to have its own plans. It is now considering several industrial-strength casinos just north of New York City (and, for that matter, the New Jersey state line).

Jersey's casino boosters seem undeterred. A North Jersey state senator — mindful of South Jersey's fear of new competition — recently ventured that a couple of big casinos in his part of the state "could produce in excess of $1 billion over 10 years to be reinvested in Atlantic City."

Sure. If you say so.

(A member of the Providence Journal editorial board, Froma Harrop writes a nationally syndicated column from that city. She has written for such diverse publications as The New York Times, Harper's Bazaar and Institutional Investor.)

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Sanborn — It's fall and many buyers are just getting started

There were 1,283 residential homes on the market as of 9/1/14 in the twelve Lakes Region communities covered by this report. The average asking price was $587,950 with a median price point of $269,900. Last September 1, there were 1249 homes on the market with an average asking price of $498,590 and the median was $259,800. The current inventory level represents a 15.5 month supply of homes on the market.

Well, Labor Day has come and gone. It really feels different now. Downtown Meredith has gotten back to normal. You can actually drive down Route 3 or Route 25 into town without cursing the stop and go traffic (at least until the foliage season.) You could kind of hear the door slam behind the summer folks. The sudden decrease in cars mucking up the byways seems to create a vacuum and it always makes me feel like it's the end of the sales season... but it's not. There may be fewer people around this the time of year, but this is when many serious buyers are just getting started.

The following chart shows that in Belknap County over the past three years, the third quarter has the most closings. There is no doubt that some of these properties went pending in the beginning of the summer, which is what you would expect. However, the fourth quarter of the year has the second highest number of sales. September and October are always pretty strong sales months and then things slow down in the middle of November and through the holidays as people focus on more important and festive activities.

Sellers always ask when the best time is to sell their home. The answer is anytime as long as the property is priced right. Your home has to be on the market in order to sell it. There were 419 homes sold over the past three years in the first quarter of the year, many of which went pending during the holiday season. Who knows for sure, but some of these homes might not have been seen or sold at all if they weren't available when that particular buyer was looking.

So just because the throngs of flatlanders are gone right now, they could be sitting down there in flatland thinking that they'll come back up when it's quiet, sneak up on you, and buy your house. At least that what's we are hoping...

Please feel free to visit to learn more about the Lakes Region real estate market and comment on this article and others. Data was compiled using the Northern New England Real Estate MLS System as of 9/2/14. Roy Sanborn is a realtor at Four Seasons Sotheby's International Realty and can be reached at 603-677-7012.

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